You might be thinking the headline to this post is rather unimaginative–a title too general to mean anything significant.
You got me there.
While FreedomRecon and I may cite poll numbers on this blog from time to time, polling isn’t a flawless and thorough science, nor is it unbiased in its methodology and presentation, nor the absolute last word on a subject. It’s important to look at details like margins of error, what the interests of the groups doing the polling might be, and how accurate the demographics are in proportion to the whole of the population.
However, polls do serve some use, sometimes for everyone, sometimes for certain parties.
One good thing for the common people to take from polls is that they can get a feel for the general consensus on important topics. If poll after poll all lead in one direction by a large majority, you have to consider the matter pretty well cut and dry. And sometimes, polling organizations get it almost right. I remember that the polling done in Wisconsin just before the recall election of Scott Walker was pretty close to the actual mark of the one poll that mattered–the election itself.
On the other hand, polls can be used by those on one side of an issue to their advantage so they can show everyone that they lead public opinion. But other concurrent polls may show that someone or something else leads public opinion, and opposing candidates or policy advocates will tout those numbers to their advantage.
Also, some people put so much weight on some polls that it guides their their opinions. Polls can brainwash people. It’s the syndrome of herdism, the mob mentality, where if the people around someone think the same about [pick an issue], that person believes he or she should think that way, too.
Then you’ve got those polls that remind you that a lot of people just don’t take the future serious.
For instance, a poll about the presidential contenders was released yesterday that got some attention, but not for who the leaders were. The candidate whose presence on the poll questions’s short list raised some eyebrows was the one out of the three choices who came in last. I noticed the topic trending yesterday on Twitter but didn’t pay it much mind at the time. This morning, I began seeing more headlines about it, including ones that explained who this mystery candidate really was.
Independent presidential candidate Deez Nuts is pulling some impressive numbers at the polls.
A recent study by Public Policy Polling (PPP) showed the candidate polling at 9 percent in North Carolina, 8 percent in Minnesota and 7 percent in Iowa.
The poll had Deez Nuts going up against Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, the leading contenders of the two big political parties in this particular poll. My reaction was pretty much the same as the guy off-camera giving his personal commentary to his fellow newscaster’s report.
“Oh no…no.”
This was a puff piece, obviously. A curiosity that some would find amusing, while others would find it a disheartening aspect of our political process, and still other people would consider it both funny and sad.
As for me, I wasn’t amused all that much. When I first noticed the internet meme getting favor over the other two candidates from one out of 10 North Carolina voters, I was bothered (once again) by the stupidity of voters.
Looking into it more, I found out like many of you might have by now that the person running under the juvenile name was indeed a juvenile–a fifteen-year-old kid from Iowa who found the inspiration to run under the fake name after hearing that a cat in Kentucky named Limberbutt McCubbins was running for president.
“The next step is to get some party nominations, like the Minnesota Independence Party or the Modern Whig Party,” the kid told the Daily Beast. “It would also be great to find a VP, preferably McCubbins because the Nuts/McCubbins ticket sounds amazing.”
So I went from being annoyed with the voters to being annoyed with the kid, though more with his parents, really.
But I got annoyed with Public Policy Polling once I read the next part of the Daily Beast article.
“It started because somebody emailed us under the name Deez Nuts,” says Jim Williams, an issue polling specialist a Public Policy Polling. “He said, ‘I’m Deez Nuts. I’m running. Here’s my filing statement. Would you poll me?’”
Williams thought “this is something Public Policy Polling would do,” so he squared Nuts off against Trump and Clinton in Minnesota a few weeks ago. He polled at 7 percent.
“I thought, ‘Let’s put this out. This’ll be funny,’” he says, and it was met with “mild interest.”
But when his numbers rose after two more polls—8 percent in Iowa, then 9 percent in North Carolina—Nuts took off. On Wednesday, Deez Nuts was trending worldwide on Twitter.
Yeah, funny. It is certainly hard to think of a poll as being serious when they throw in questions like that for laughs. Yet many people would vote for someone to lead a nation of 300 million simply based off a funny name. So I then go from being annoyed with the PPP poll back to being annoyed with the stupid voters and appreciating PPP for exposing the stupidity of voters.
Once I finished reading that article, I found the Rolling Stone article in which they interviewed the kid running under the made-up name. Here is some of their written exchange:
How old are you?
15, so no day job, no kids, no marriage …Do your parents know? Are they supportive?
My parents know and they gave me the green light. …Is [the name he chose] some kind statement on our two-party political system?
Half trying to break the two-party system, half frustration with the front-runners
Hmm. I wouldn’t approve my kid of doing this at that age, but it sounds like he has worthwhile intentions.
Why did you decide to run for president?
Because I really didn’t want to see Clinton, Bush, or Trump in the White House, so I guess I’m just trying to put up a fight.How would you describe your political orientation? have you ever been a registered Democrat or Republican?
I’m fifteen, so I haven’t been registered yet. I side more with the Libertarian Party. …What do you think qualifies you to be president?
The fact that if I can fill out a form so vague that it doesn’t include your age, or the fact that all get accepted even if they’re only partially filled, anyone can run.
Huh. How about that. He thinks thinks that Clinton, Trump, and Jeb! are awful choices for president. He’s exposing a flaw within the process of becoming a presidential candidate. Maybe I misjudged this kid. #DeezNuts2016! Hell yeah!
Did Public Policy Polling start using your name in polls at your request — or did they start doing that independently?
I asked, but I wanted it to be against low-pollers, like me vs Lindsey Graham vs Lincoln Chafee, to see how desperate voters would be in that situation
But didn’t he say that he was running because he didn’t want Clinton, Jeb(!), or Trump in the White House? Mmf. Makes sense to be realistic about expectations, I guess.
Why should Americans support you, rather than Donald Trump?
Because I’m young and I think I have fresher ideas because whatever decisions I make would have longer effects on me
People can’t elect the kid president, but he can still make a statement that people can support. Good on him for it.
If you could pose one question to Hillary Clinton, what would it be?
Why can’t you be more open and friendly like Bernie?If you had to back another presidential candidate, who would it be?
Either Bernie Sanders(D-VT) or Gary Johnson(L-NM)
…Oh. He’d choose either the ultra-socialist candidate or the ultra-libertarian candidate. I just cancelled my bumper sticker order. I can’t be mad at the kid, though. He’s young. He has a lot of life to experience.
As for the people of voting age who would vote for him, such as a possible 9 percent of the North Carolina electorate? I suppose when faced with having to choose among Clinton, Trump, and Nuts, Nuts would be no worse of a choice den eider o’ doze udder two nuts.
Lord. That I’m even writing about the possibility of any of these people having a chance to win the election for President of the United States is a sad sign.
However, word comes out today of another poll conducted by Marquette University Law School that puts someone other than Trump as the leading Republican choice of voters in Wisconsin. That person, as you might have guessed, is Governor Scott Walker. He garnered 25 percent from eligible voters who were asked to choose a Republican. Ben Carson received 13 percent, while Donald Trump stands at a lowly 9 percent. Ted Cruz came in a close fourth with 8 percent followed by Carly Fiorina and Marco Rubio each getting 7 percent. With 6 percent of the total, Jeb! Bush came in seventh place in the Marquette poll.
As for the Democratic candidates in the same poll, Clinton was preferred by 44 percent of those polled, Sanders got 32 percent, and BFDVPOMG Joe Biden came in third with 12 percent.
Speaking of lovable old Gaffey Joe, the Vice President made a strong showing in a few battleground states, according to a poll that Quinnipiac just released.
By way of Mediaite (read it and try not to commit yourself to the nearest sanitarium):
It’s officially time for Joe Biden to jump into the race for the 2016 Democratic nomination if today’s Quinnipiac poll is any indication.
FLORIDA: Biden 45 – Trump 42
OHIO: Biden 48 – Trump 38
PENNSYLVANIA: Biden 48 – Trump 40
In this hypothetical, Biden has a better chance of beating Trump in all three swing states than Clinton does.
Yet in an imagined head-to-head general election matchup between Marco Rubio and Joe Biden, Pennsylvanians told the pollster that Rubio would beat Biden by three points (44 percent to 41 percent).
I also found this interesting:
While they lead in the race for the nomination, Clinton and Trump have the worst overall favorability ratings among all voters of any of the leading candidates, and the lowest scores for being honest and trustworthy…
In other words, the leading candidates are also the most despised candidates. Much of the other results in the Quinnipiac poll are just as schizoid.
But one part that is comprehensible to those who remember the 1992 and 1996 elections is this:
If Trump makes a third-party run, results are:
Florida – Clinton at 37 percent, with 36 percent for Bush and 19 percent for Trump;
Ohio – Clinton over Bush 37 – 27 percent, with 23 percent for Trump;
Pennsylvania – Clinton tops Bush 37 – 29 percent, with Trump at 24 percent.
This is why if Trump switches to running as an independent candidate, the GOP could face a major problem. Yes, of course a lot can change before the primary elections begin, but the Iowa caucus is now just over five months from now. If they intend to remain contenders before then, the other Republican candidates had better not wait around for Trump to suddenly shoot himself in the foot. He’s done it several times already, yet he is still at or near the top of the GOP candidate heap across much of the country.
Now that I’ve thrown all these poll numbers at you, dear readers, I should probably get to my point.
My point…is…
Polls happen. The end.
