Today’s post was submitted by Eric D. Mertz
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One of the strongest arguments the Stronger In campaign has regarding the EU Referendum is the economic one. The cornerstone of the #ProjectFear campaign, the economic prognostications from the Remain camp warn of economic dangers and a smaller and more austere government which will be unable to provide the same level of services. Considering just how dependent the British public is on government largess in light of their high taxes, this is a justifiable concern.
However, these prognostications all rely on an assumption of ceteris paribus – an Economic term which means “all other things remaining constant”. And that is the central and fatal conceit at the core of their arguments. Because, contrary to their claims, ceteris mutantur. Nothing remains the same.
And this is especially true for the EU.
Let’s start with the “refugee” crisis. Right now, the EU’s demographics are changing at an alarming rate. In France, 25% of teenagers are Muslims of North African or Middle Eastern descent. According to this survey, the Muslim population of France has grown at a rate between two and six hundred percent since 1997, well above the birthrate for native French. Sweden, the rape capital of the western world, will be a Muslim majority country by 2050 if current demographic trends remain on track. And there is no sign the Swedes will be changing course any time soon. And these individuals are largely self-segregating Muslim majority areas which are hotbeds of radicalization. A situation which the EU has responded to by cracking down on free speech, even as the Eastern and Central European nations of the EU implement border crackdowns and call on the EU to reform their refugee management policies, threatening the EU’s political stability.
Given what happened to Lebanon, this should be cause for very real concern.
But that’s the long term issue. What of the short term?
In the short term, Europe is headed for economic ruin.
Greece is still the sick man of Europe, with no sign of it ever getting healthy. Spain, in spite of the claims of economic recovery, still has an unemployment rate of 20%. Italy has cut their economic growth forecast and may soon be forced to choose between either staying in the Euro or its own economic survival.
With the EU currently collapsing, what hope is there for ceteris paribas?
