Since we celebrated the birth of our nation Monday, we postponed Stephen L. Hall’s weekly post until today. Enjoy.
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One of the most interesting of phenomena comes in what is known as the cascade, which is by nature the same thing as a chain reaction. But the nature of the effect occurs at the subatomic level, on the molecular level in physical structures, and even metaphysically in social networking.
All of these are merely variation upon a mathematical concept, and being mathematical it is a universal concept. My favorite example is the avalanche, which is a gravity assisted, kinetically driven cascade of snow and ice. Other people naturally have their favorite examples of the concept.
The nuclear chain reaction where one nucleus collides with another which breaks apart sending out several nuclei to encounter others. The chain reaction increases at an exponential rate as one atom affects two which each affect two more etc; or rather 2 x 2 x 2 x . . . x 2, or 2 to the “n”th power. Every chain reaction follows this exponential pattern, that is what makes it so powerful.
Of course, fissionable material has to be highly refined and is generally compact. The reason for this is obvious because it decreases the time between reactions and the certainty of continuing the reactions. One of the important elements of the chain reaction is the time between reactions, as much as the reactions themselves. Atomic explosions occur because the time between reactions is so minute.
An avalanche is essentially the same reaction. Once the snow starts moving, triggered by some vibration, it comes in contact with the snow below it breaking it loose multiplying the weight of snow falling on the next layer. The weight of the snow falling increases at an exponential rate until the whole mountain side of snow is collapsing.
You may be wondering why I would bring up these physical demonstrations on a political and social site. As frequent readers will be familiar, there has been a number of discussions about the possibility of economic destabilization and economic collapse into another Great Depression. But the reaction event is the same.
The cascade requires that the medium contain within it a latent or hidden tension or energy which fuels the reaction. In an avalanche it is gravity; in fission it is the inherent instability of the atoms; in an economy the levels of debt, the outsourcing of actual production, dependency of government largess, and bloated government employment all provide energy which could fuel an economic collapse.
Imagine the entire economy modeled by a simple bank. The bank, in the theory of a more olde fashioned perspective, contains in its vaults deposits of gold and silver, your balances in your savings and checking accounts. Let us suppose our bank has $1,000,000 in deposits. The bank promises to pay depositors say 3% interest on the deposits, then makes loans on those deposits in the form of demand notes, at say 8% interest.
One might suppose that the bank would legitimately make a nice 5% return on these transactions, of lending your money to your neighbor. However, in order to make greater profits, and realizing that people tended to hold on to these notes and pass them back and forth between each other rather than demanding the gold or silver, the bank lends out ten times the amount of the deposits in loans, or $10,000,000. The bank now makes a 75% return on that million dollars each year instead of 5%.
Essentially, the money supply is now inflated, where there was one million actual dollars in gold and silver, there is now ten million dollars in notes. Prices for land, food, clothing, and shelter adjust to this increased money supply. A house which once cost $5,000 now costs $50,000 and the same goes for every other product.
The danger of collapse of the bank, our model society happens when people start to think that the economy is in trouble so they gather up all of their notes and go to the bank demanding the gold and silver in exchange. Other people seeing this demand by one depositor get nervous and do the same thing. The same cascade effect creates a “run” on the bank where note holders demanding their money takes off on that same exponential growth as the chain reaction. The bank finds itself in a bind because it cannot honor all the notes it has issued and the bank collapses.
The general economy can collapse in the same fashion if there is widespread lack of confidence in the system. The greater the pressures on the system, the quicker and more devastating the collapse can become. It is the suddenness of the cascade effect in the economy, whether political, social, economic, or natural disaster in origin, which drive the survivalists to prepare for such eventualities.
The cascade effect begins with a single interaction which releases tensions already built up in the system. While it looks to the observer as an isolated event that just went out of control like a cigarette sparking forest fire, in reality it is perfectly predictable if you just take the time to notice the energy/tension already present. An earthquake fault releases tension, the more tension the greater the devastation.
This effect also plays in social networks with themes going viral on the internet or candidates gaining political momentum to appear an unstoppable force. It is not the candidate but the built up tension in the system which drives them forward for good or for ill. Political movements are also a release of energy in the political system.
The slower the reaction, the more time between the interactions, and observers quit associating the movements with this same chain reaction phenomena. A political or philosophic cascade is an often slow-moving reaction. It has taken a hundred years for the drift of power from the states to the centralized federal government from the passage of the 17th Amendment for that federal government to become the bloated intrusive monstrosity that it has become.
But, we often don’t notice this same effect when we are in the middle of it. It is easy to overlook our own participation in the chain reaction. If your comment affects and moves three or four people who go to other sites and spread that sentiment or thought, every person here can set off a chain reaction which can, with time, momentum, and releasing a pent-up frustration, move the entire nation or the world.
When an idea expressed on this page is discussed with your friends or family, or on another site, those ideas spread and carry. When you bring ideas from other sites to share with us, you are the atom transmitting the energy in a social chain reaction. The power of the cascade effect can be enormous, given time, given scope.
Never dismiss your own contribution to society merely because you are expressing your frustrations. Your impact is always more far-reaching and powerful than you realize. Free speech is political and social power, use it, and do not discount your value.
