Hump Day message from Eric D. Mertz. Thank you, Eric!
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In 1991, William Strauss and Neil Howe published the book Generations. Taking a generational approach to history, Strauss and Howe examined Anglo-American history by examining each generation from 1584 to when the book was published. While examining the generations, they discovered a cycle of generations and time which repeated over and over in the pattern of the seasons.
Referred to as “turnings” within a “saeculum”, each turning was a period of twenty years with a saeculum being a period of eighty years, and each turning and the generation which came of age during that period tended to follow the same broad archetypal patterns.
During the High, the spring of the Saeculum, individualism tends to give way to institutions as confidence in the society in which one lives grows and strengthens. While many of these institutions are the tattered remains of those which were damaged in the previous crisis, still others are those created by the previous generation as part of the means by which they handled and survived the crisis. While this period tends to economically booming (the Post-World War II Economic Boom, Reconstruction, etc.), those outside the majority tend to feel stifled and without voice.
After the High comes the Awakening. The institutions repaired and built up over the past twenty years will be attacked by those who had been cast out of the majority during the High. Individualism waxes strong during this time as collective identity fragments and the generation coming of age seeks a sense of personal authenticity and autonomy from the collective. (The 60’s and 70’s, the period between the Spanish American War and World War I, and the Transcendental Awakening which preceded the Civil War).
This desire for personal authenticity and autonomy results in the Unraveling. The waxing individualism of the population continues to grow as the moral authority of the institutions and their leaders wanes more and more. Scandals pile up one atop the other and society effectively balkanizes into a thousand subcultures – most of which will not survive the coming crisis. (Culture Wars, WWI and Prohibition).
Finally, we reach the Crisis. The winter of the saeculum, the institutions are destroyed and rebuilt. Political parties can change their ideology entirely, governments are under threat of internal or external revolt, churches may abandon their dogma, countries risk balkanization, and all of the old axioms upon which the society are based come under siege from new ideas. (Great Recession, WWII, Civil War, Glorious Revolution)
The current Crisis began in 2008, which seemed to set the standard for the next twenty years.
- The financial crisis which began the Great Recession.
- Russian adventurism in the Republic of Georgia heralding a more aggressive and hegemonic empire.
- Chinese saber rattling in the Opening Ceremony of the Games of the XXIX Olympiad in Beijing warning of a far more aggressive and assertive China.
- Left wing militants in the RNC Welcoming Committee and others carrying out acts of political violence which would usher in the new era of political and cultural polarization and extremism.
- Obama and the media gaslighting the Right in order to induce political rot.
- Bush passes a stimulus package which will set the precedent for more interventions into the economy, most of them unsuccessful.
- The Fed begins cutting interest rates, heralding the coming of 0% rates and eventually the initiation of inflationary Quantitative Easing plans.
- SpaceX makes the first successful spaceflight by a private spacecraft.
- Rise of the Tea Party as a force in GOP Politics.
- Iran launches their first rocket capable of orbital flight.
- Rising food and water prices set off unrest throughout the third world.
- Tibetan and Uyghur minorities in China begin large scale protests against the Chinese Government.
- President Obama begins the process of withdrawing US Troops from Iraq, beginning the process which will allow ISIS to fill the vacuum.
Other events would bubble up in the ensuing years. The Arab Spring. Labor protests in China. Chavez’s “Bolivarian Revolution” in Venezuela collapsing under the weight of the bad policies the government had pursued. The death of Trayvon Martin at the hands of George Zimmerman.
So, what can we expect from the next twelve years? More of the above.
- Economic depression with increasingly radical economic policies in an attempt to save the economy.
- Aggressive moves by the Kremlin to expand their hegemony over all of Europe.
- China escalating their aggressive moves towards outsiders in a cynical bid to tamp down the unrest at home.
- Political violence becoming the norm instead of the exception.
- The next president and the administration’s spokesmen gaslighting the American people to ever more insane degrees.
- Iran continuing to strive for nuclear weapons and setting off a nuclear arms race in the Middle East.
- Growing racial strife and self-segregation.
- The collapse of second and third world nations outright, with the potential for governments across Europe and North America falling outright.
