As always, many thanks to Eric D. Mertz for this weekly post!
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**China**
China’s Growth Unsustainable
Per the International Monetary Fund, China’s growth of debt is highly unsustainable. Corporate debt is at an aggregate of 145% above GDP at a time when China’s economy is slowing and manufacturing is moving out of China to cheaper labor markets in South Asia and Africa. Given the Command Economy nature of China’s system, any collapse of their corporate structure will cause far greater financial issues than it will here.
Explosion at Chinese Power Plant Kills 21
Occurring at Danyang, Hubei in China’s heartland, the explosion was caused by a high-pressure steam pipe exploding. This accident is indicative of a larger issue with lax health and safety standards in China which is further fueling the anger of China’s internal migrant underclass.
**Russia and Ukraine**
Expect the situation in Russia and Ukraine to blow up soon. Here’s background on how Russian provocations of border incidents usually happen.
Deja vu? The Game does not change, neither does the Player….#UnitedforUkraine #crimeaisukraine pic.twitter.com/E91zN1AXvy
— LT MFA STRATCOM (@LT_MFA_Stratcom) August 11, 2016
So, what is going on right now? This will be the meat and potatoes of this week’s debrief for a simple reason – Russia looks to be getting ready to move on Ukraine, and the US does not have leadership with the spine to react.
Russia Deploys Advanced Air-Defense System to Crimea
Firefight on Crimean Border Which Prompted Current Tensions a Result of Friendly Fire.
TASS Accuses Ukrainian Intelligence of Carrying Out Border Firefight
Ukrainian Government Preparing for Provocations from Donetsk People’s Republic Fighters
Russian and Donetsk Militant Forces Readying For Attack in Donetsk
**Agriculture**
Baltic Wheat Production Declines
Iran to Export Wheat For First Time
25% of Russian Wheat Exports Flowed Into Egypt
African Drought Expands to East Africa
With Ukraine exporting less wheat than ever, France seeing their worst harvest in 30 years, the Baltics in trouble and Germany looking to be in the same place as the Baltics when their harvest begins, and Egypt continuing to import wheat, expect tensions and unrest in the Third World to continue and intensify.
We’ll have a better idea of how bad the situation will be when the rice harvesting season begins soon.
**India and Pakistan**
India and Pakistan To Sign Non-Testing Agreement
Per Pakistan’s Ambassador to India, Pakistan has already declared a unilateral moratorium on further nuclear testing.
Japan to Invest $25M in Indian Manufacturing and Transportation Infrastructure
Following Vigilante Attacks on Cow Processing, Muslim Organizations Demand Beef Export Ban
This is a continuation of the other stories I’ve posted on Dalits refusing to touch dead cattle as a result of the Hindu radicals attacking people for “killing” cattle. Recently, Hindu Radicals have extended their attacks to include growers and processors of water buffalo, which the government classifies as beef for the purposes of export.
**Middle East**
Pro-Kurdish Lawmakers Accused of Terrorist Propaganda
Recently stripped of immunity, India is accusing these lawmakers of backing the Kurdish Worker’s Party, a separatist group frequently accused of terrorism by the Turkish government.
Libya is currently suffering from financial crisis and serious infrastructure problems which is undermining confidence in and support for the government.
As pointed out above, Egypt was once a breadbasket, but is now importing wheat. This is a major issue for their economy. The fact no one is vacationing to Egypt’s tourism industry anymore isn’t helping any.
Top ISIS Leader Reported Dead in Fight
ISIS Natural Resources Manager Sami Jassim Mohammed Al Jabouri dead in fighting along Iraqi-Syrian border with Kurdish forces. USCENTCOM has yet to confirm these reports. Per US forces operating in conjunction with the Kurds, the unnamed target of the operation committed suicide.
CENTCOM Reports 3/4 of ISIS Troops Removed From Battle
Per Lt. Gen MacFarland, the Coalition have managed to kill or capture 45k ISIS fighters, leaving only a reported 15k fighters on the battlefield. However, given recent evidence CENTCOM cooked the data on ISIS, this number must be taken with a grain of salt.
US Special Forces On Ground in Libya
Per Libyan and Pentagon Officials, Green Berets are in the region providing combat air control and intelligence gathering and analysis support to Libyan forces fighting against the ISIS stronghold in Sirte
**Europe**
The Atlantic Has A Good Write Up of Europe’s Current Terror Crisis
Fires Raging Across Southern Europe
Fires are threatening Marseilles, Funchal on Portugal’s Madeira Island, Northwest Spain. Casualties have been reported, and authorities are evacuating residents of the area.
ISIS Hit Squads Infiltrating Europe as Refugees
Tell us something we didn’t already know, why don’t you…
Greece saw a 0.3 growth in GDP last quarter. This was still a net shrinkage of 0.1, but it is the first sign of potential economic health out of Greece in a long while.
**Africa**
Nigeria Declares Polio Emergency
Nigeria, recently promoted to Second WOrld status, is suffering from a public health crisis due to Boko Haram.
South Sudan Rejects Additional UN Peacekeepers
Fighting broke out in Juba again last month, leading to fears the civil war may begin once more. The US asked the UN to send an additional five thousand troops, but Sudan rejected the troops on the grounds it meant a return to “colonialism”.
**South America**
Venezuelans Fleeing Country
Reports indicate the number of Venezuelan ex-patriates has tripled from 185k to 606k, half of which are living here in the US. Reports indicate 120k have been crossing the border with Columbia in search of food and medicine they can’t find in Venezuela.
Brazilian Senate to Try Ex-Rousseff
Mexican Border Security Falls Short
The majority of all illegal immigrants entering the US currently are doing so from Central and South America and passing through Mexico. The disruptions and problems we have been having due to illegal immigration is now hitting Mexico as a result. Mexico claimed they were going to get serious on their southern border, but so far there has been little evidence to show they were serious on the subject.
**Extra-Terrestrial**
Scientist Warns of 35 Year Winter
Professor Zharkova of Northumbria University is warning of a return of the Maunder Minimum, a solar phenomenon which saw plummeting sunspots and solar activity bring about the Little Ice Age of the 1600’s.
