Big thanks to Eric D. Mertz for our foreign news!
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Due to the ongoing tensions and potential for nuclear war between India and Pakistan, that category shall remain at the top of these debriefs until such time as they have reached a settlement. Very slow news week in Africa and South America as situations there remain status quo.
**India and Pakistan**
India Launches Surgical Strikes In Pakistan
With the threat of conventional war looming over India like the Sword of Damocles, India has begun launching retaliatory strikes against Islamic Militants in Pakistan. Pakistan has claimed that cross-border shelling by India has killed two Pakistani soldiers. Unconfirmed reports indicate up to 30 militants were killed in the strikes, which the Press Trust of India reported were carried out by a combination of airborne and ground forces.
Indian Soldier in Pakistani Custody
According to India, the soldier had inadvertently crossed the border while on patrol. Pakistan, however, claims the soldier was involved in attacks against targets in Pakistan.
Evacuations in Kashmir and Punjab Increase Pace
Thousands of villagers along the border are being evacuated to Sikh Gurdwaras further from the border. However, as the evacuations are still voluntary, most residents are remaining in their homes.
Indus River Waters Treaty Issues Increase Tensions
India’s Prime Minister has suspended meetings of the International Commission meant to oversee compliance with the Indus Waters Treaty in face of the new conflict. Currently, India is legally only allowed to use 20% of the water of the Indus river system, which is the primary source of water for the entirety of Pakistan.
The Korean Coast Guard (KCG) was in the process of apprehending the fishermen for illegal operations within the South Korean Exclusive Economic Zone when the fishermen barricaded themselves inside the superstructure of the vessel. The KCG threw flash-bang grenades into the room with the purpose of stunning them, only for something within the room to catch fire. This is far from the first time the KCG has been forced to chase Chinese fishermen from Korean waters. The situation is so bad, Korean fishermen have begun forming vigilante gangs to capture and impound Chinese vessels operating in Korean waters.
Chinese Corruption Stumbling Block In Economic Reforms
One of the problems with the Chinese economy right now is the oversupply of steel refining and manufacturing capacity. With an annual surplus of productive capacity for steel running at close to 400M tons, most of China’s steel firms are currently running in the red, only being propped up due to their status as State-Owned Enterprises. However, while China has announced the plans to shut down 150M tons of capacity by 2020, steel refineries are instead lying about how much capacity they are shutting down and pocketing the money from the government being set aside for dismantling the production equipment and unemployment benefits. According to prosecutors, close to ¥42.04M ($6.3M) was embezzled from the fund, with up to 20% given as kickbacks to local officials to ensure they looked the other way.
China To Invest in ¥3T ($450G) Farm Reform Proposal
Over 100x larger than the amount the US invested in agricultural startups last year, that quantity is desperately needed if China is to attain anything close to self-sufficiency in agriculture. China’s air is polluted by dirty industry, China’s rivers are disappearing or polluted, and China’s land is so poisoned by heavy metals half of its once productive land is no longer considered arable. Some of this is going into the purchase of seed companies such as the Swiss company Syngenta, while much of the rest is expected to go into halving the quantity of fertilizer used (China currently uses double the quantity of fertilizer per acre as the US, which is highly wasteful and inefficient), concentrated animal husbandry, and land-tenure reform which will allow China to match US style thousand acre farms.
China’s Housing Bubble Is Larger Than Expected
Though limited to the Tier 1 cities, those cities are the ones located in the Special Economic Zones where a limited Free Market is legal. This is largely being driven by investors who are still weary of stocks and bonds and view real estate as a safer source of investments. However, according to Deutsche Bank’s Chief China Economist, Zhiwei Zhang (pronounced Sheway Shang), the correction should occur within the next two years. According to Zhiwei, the increase in housing prices in China’s SEZ’s is being driven almost entirely by expectations that prices will continue to rise. Should that change in any way (even just a slow in the rate of increase), Zhiwei is predicting a repeat of the 2008 Housing Crisis which set off the Great Recession here and abroad.
**Russia and Ukraine**
Russia Accuses US of Protecting Terrorists In Syria
The US has been directly arming and funding various “moderate” forces in Syria, only for the arms and weapons to wind up in the hands of al-Nusra – the al-Qaeda franchise in Syria. This comes immediately after Russia killed 400 civilians in the bombing campaign in Aleppo.
China and Russia Sign New Oil Deal
Previously, 70% of Chinese oil flowed in through the Straits of Malacca. With Russia cut off from many of its European customers and angry over sanctions, Russia is now seeking to supply as much of that 70% as it can.
All books imported from Russia will now be screened for “Anti-Ukrainian Content” in an attempt to crack down on sedition.
**Middle East**
400 Dead and 800 Wounded This Week Alone in Siege of Aleppo
Between the Syrian ground assault and the Russian airstrikes, over 1200 people are dead or wounded and the city is without water. Reports from within the city indicate the attacks are centered on hospitals and civil defense infrastructure.
Fighters from French Carrier Charles de Gaulle Strike Mosul
The bombing campaign against Mosul ahead of the coming assault on the city has intensified with the addition of French fighters operating from the de Gaulle. However, the French Minister of Defense has been adamant in stating the French airstrikes do not mark the beginning of the assault on the ISIS held city.
Turkey Shuts Down 20 Kurdish TV and Radio Stations For ‘Sedition’
Included among the channels shut down is a station which played Kurdish folks songs and another which played cartoons dubbed in Kurdish.
Egyptian Government Eating Itself To Pay Bills
Tourism, the primary economic driver of Egypt, is down 15% from last year, which was part of a continuing decline in tourism since the first revolution in 2011 which ousted Mubarak. Inflation is now up 15.5%, with food up close to 33%. In an attempt to subsidize food, Egypt has cut their cash reserves from $33G to $15.6G since 2010. This economic crisis is not helped by the fact 40% of Egypt’s population is between the age of 10 and 20, with 30% of the youth currently unemployed (34% for university graduates). This is a recipe for revolution.
**Europe**
Europe Facing Generational Struggle
With ISIS on the retreat – half its territory has been lost this past year – European governments are concerned a growing number of ISIS fighters will begin infiltrating back into Europe to carry out attacks.
Belgium Announced New Security Plan
Belgian government has deployed more police to Molenbeek, and has employed a new task force to examine welfare recipients in Molenbeek for ties to terrorism and criminal organizations.
