**China**
Trump’s Proposed Trade War a Win for China
Trump wants to begin a trade war for the purposes of “punishing” China for “stealing” US jobs. However, the fact of the matter is China is still undergoing a net loss of jobs as manufacturing facilities move overseas and away from China. In fact, as the article linked shows, China is trying to shift away from manufacturing consumer goods designed by foreign firms for sale both internationally and domestically for consumer goods designed by Chinese firms for export to the US. To replace Apple and Samsung with Meizu. To replace Volkswagen and Ford with Wuling Motors. Not just in China, but in the US and Europe and every other market in the world. And they are doing so with an increasingly aggressive and hostile attitude towards foreign manufacturers and economic firms.
The sudden withdrawal of US firms due to a trade war with China would see the US firms having to pull out and potentially drop out of the black and into the red as a result. Too many of the world’s largest firms are reliant on the Chinese market for their profitability. Without access to that market, or with prices too high for access to be profitable, Chinese firms stand to gain serious ground at the expense of the free world. What’s more, with the Trans-Pacific Partnership likely dead in the water, China stands to gain even more ground in the ever growing and ever more important East Asian market at the expense of the US.
It will hurt China in the short run, but it will help them in the long if Trump actually follows through with his foolish plans.
China’s Xi: China Will Never Allow ANny Part of its Territory to Break Off
The Self-styled “Core Leader” of China, Xi Jinping, vowed to suppress any separatist movements in the country – by force if necessary. The President of China’s remarks came on the 150th anniversary of the founding of the Republic of China by Sun Yat-Sen. This came almost immediately after China cut off all official lines of communication and diplomatic ties with Taiwan over President Ing-Wen’s refusal to back down on her pro-Taiwanese Independence stances.
China is Holding “Elections” of Their Own
Electrions are a joke there, however. Only members of the Chinese Communist Party and a few friendly “independent” parties maintained by the CCP as fig-leaves to give the appearance of democracy will be elected. For anyone else who wants to run, they will face serious and often technically illegal hurdles to the process starting with harassment and working its way up from there.
INTERPOL Names Meng Hongwei, Chinese Vice Minister of Public Security, as new President of INTERPOL
Already facing criticism over the abuse of “Red Notices” by China and Russia, INTERPOL has now chosen to elect the Chinese head of internal security as their new leader. This after the agencies which Meng has been placed in charge over have been accused of kidnapping dissidents, refugees, and foreign opponents of the regime from Kenya, Thailand, and Burma in recent years. Although the position of the General Secretary, and thus the day to day control of the organization, is still in German hands, the Presidency has serious clout and can be used by a strong enough personality to override or influence the decisions of the General Secretary.
South Korea’s Chaebol Conglomerates Tied to Presidential Corruption
Much like Japan’s Zaibatsu from decades ago, South Korea’s business conglomerates – known as chaebol and operating in much the same space as the Zaibatsu – have been strongly tied into the ongoing corruption scandal in South Korea. With Samsung at the core of the new branch of the ongoing scandal.
**Russia and Eastern Europe**
Montenegro Accusses Russia of Complicity in Coup Attempt
Russian nationalists attempted to carry out a coup against the Montenegrin government which included plans to kill the Prime Minister over the plans by PM Milo Djukanovic (Democratic Party of Socialists of Montenegro) to have his country join NATO. Although stopping short of blaming Russia outright, the Montenegrin government did name two Russian nationals as ringleaders in the plot.
Russia Carrying Out Airstrikes From Carrier in Med
The Admiral Kuznetsov has been carrying out airstrikes against Syria from their carrier in the Med. Supported by the Kirov-class battlecruiser Peter the Great and a pair of Udaloy class guided missile destroyers, the Kuznetsov is engaging in the first offensive use of a Russian carrier since the end of the Cold War.
After a campaign season filled with accusations of complicity and collusion between the Kremlin and Trump, recent statements from Ryabkov seem to have confirmed those links.
**India and Pakistan**
Indian Bank Run For Hard Currency After Government Announces Plan to Scrap Rs 1,000 and Rs 500 Notes
With India introducing a new currency and scraping the older, larger bank notes, ATM’s are running out of smaller denomination bills and banks are seeing bank runs. Most of the urgency due to the heavy usage of now demonetized notes for payment of goods and services along with bills, making up roughly 86% of all banknotes in circulation. Per the Reserve Bank of India, old banknotes in nominations which haven’t been demonetized will remain legal tender until the end of the year and they have enough bank notes on hand to pay for the transition. However, the larger bills will be demonetized officially and fully on the 14th of this month.
Trump’s Protectionist Policies Could Hurt India’s Manufacturing Future
Just as India begins plans to woo manufactures fleeing China’s increasingly hostile business environment, fears over Trump’s protectionist foreign trade policies could destroy the economic boom which PM MOdi has been pursuing. As one of India’s largest export partners and their largest investor, any barrier being raised on trade between the US and India could seriously damage Modi’s attempts to modernize and improve the standard of living for the average citizen in India.
**Middle East and North Africa**
Trump Will “Renegotiate” Deal With Iran
Raise your hand if you didn’t see this one coming.
ISIS Murders 40 As Traitors, Displays Bodies As Warning
With the ongoing fighting in Mosul, ISIS murdered 40 on charges of “treason and collusion” as an object lesson to those around them. A further twenty were murdered by ISIS on “espionage” grounds. Per UN Sources, ISIS is stockpiling sulphur and ammonia near civilian areas. Ostensibly, these chemical compounds will be used for chemical weapons, though they can easily be turned on the people of Mosul should the city fall.
Russia Claims To Have Found Evidence Syrian Rebels Responsible For Chemical Weapons Use
Grain of salt, but Russia claims to have found a stockpile of chemical weapons which they claimed were the ones used in previous chemical weapon attacks in Syria. The identity of the ones responsible are still disputed, and fingers have been pointed at both the rebels and the Syrian government.
Israel To Expand Settlement Construction
Viewing the Trump election as a signal that the US will not officially oppose settlement construction in Judea and Samaria, Israel is planning to restart settlement construction as a result. Close to a half-million Jews currently live in settlements in the area.
Egyptian Security Forces Begin Crackdown
Ahead of expected mass demonstrations against the government, the security forces in Egypt are out on the streets to prevent a repeat of the first two Egyptian Springs which brought down a pair of successive governments in short order. Calling itself the Movement of the Poor, the group organizing the protests was calling for the protests to oppose the austerity measures which Egypt has had to impose due to their rather poor financial status.
**Europe**
Germany To Boost Defense Spending
With an increase in security, intelligence, and foreign aid spending in the next year’s budget, this marks a reversal of the trend in Germany towards a smaller military and security apparatus in favor of the welfare state. Included in this amount is funding for the new Marshall Plan for Africa which Germany has proposed and which this article covers in the section on Africa.
Spain to Ban Insulting Memes to Protect “Honor” of Politicians
**Africa**
Germany To Spur “Marshall Plan” for Africa
Looking to the elimination of push factors to stem the flow of migrants into Europe, Germany will be investing billions in African economic and infrastructure plans. If this works, Africa’s upward trajectory would – in theory – halt the flow of migrants and see Africa rising up to a second or even first world status of living within a few decades.
**South America**
Chilean Government Declares Public Health Emergency
After a two-week long strike, garbage is building up in Santiago as trucks full of imports and exports sit at the border waiting for customs officials to sign their paperwork. Hospitals are only treating emergencies – with 5000 surgeries and 16000 routine medical appointments postponed until the end of the strike – and there is fear there will be an increase in Zika infections as public sanitation officials set down their sprayers.
The public sector and civil servants union are striking over the government offer of a 3.2% raise. The Unions had demanded 7%, but the government in Chile responded with the 3.2% on the grounds it couldn’t afford higher.
Argentinian Farmers Taking Advantage of Export Tax Repeal
Buenos Aires has completely eliminated the 20% export tax on maize and cut the export tax on soybeans from 35% to 30%. With the expected bumper crop of exports, Argentinian demand for agrochemicals is up 50% and the demand for pickup trucks is up 30%. Argentina has also seen the largest growth in new agricultural land, with a 5% increase over lat year – well above the 4.6% in Russia, which has recently begun transitioning to an agricultural based economy in order to avoid sanctions and deal with the sudden collapse of petroleum prices.
Argentina is expected to produce 36M metric tons of grain come harvest in April.
Following Rousseff Impeachment, Foreign Oil Firms Set Eyes on Brazil
With Petrobras neutered following the impeachment of Rousseff and the rise of Temer to the Presidency, Brazil is pushing new legislation which will serve to attract foreign investments and competition with the state-owned oil company. Shell, the largest investor eyeing the nation’s unexploited oil reserves, is prepared to invest $10G over the next five years for the purpose. Previous investment in the reserves tended to be limited to Brazilian firms due to laws requiring Petrobras to run the oil fields.
