Hong Kong Court Forbids Pro-Independence Lawmakers From Taking Seats on Hong Kong Council
Following in line with a National People’s Congress ruling which forbade the pro-Independence lawmakers from taking their duly elected seats on the legislative council, High Court Judge Thomas Au ruled against the lawmakers. Deciding that the lawmakers – Yau Wai-ching and Baggio Leung – had both taken the oath to Hong Kong as a subject of China in an “insincere” manner, the pair of them were ruled disqualified on those grounds. In reaction, protesters took to the streets and were forced to use umbrellas and children’s play mats to defend themselves from Riot Police in a repeat of the 2014 Umbrella Revolution. Separately, close to two-thousand lawyers, paralegals, and other members of the legal community marched in silence to protest what they claimed was mainland interference in the Hong Kong legal code.
However, while both Yau and Baggio are appealing the decision, one member of the National People’s Council indicated his belief up to 15 others had taken the oath “insincerely” as well.
H/t Aggienormal
China Preparing Trade Deal to Fill Vacuum of Death of TPP
Created by Obama as a spear aimed straight at the heart of the Chinese economy, the Trans-Pacific Partnership was intended to bind the nations around China into a single trading block which would further bind China’s neighbors to the US economy. Combined, the trade block would have had a GDP of almost $28T, roughly 40% of the Gross Planetary Product, before the inevitable economic growth which such a trade deal would provoke. While it is unlikely Japan, Australia, Canada, and New Zealand will take part in the Chinese backed Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, the RCEP is expected to bind roughly 30% of the planetary economy into a Chinese led trade block.
China Urges Tech Firms to Police Internet, Censor “Radical” Opinions
Arguing that nothing outweighs national security – not even personal privacy or free speech protections – Xi Jinping urged internet companies at the third-annual World Internet Conference to adopt policies in accordance with the December 2015 law which requires tech companies in China to decrypt any data the ChiComs order them to do so, censor rumors which the government defines as being “false”, and to censor any content which the government defines as being “harmful to national security”. As defined by China, this amounts to the various tech companies serving as de facto arms of the Chinese internal security apparatus.
Chinese Price Controls on Real Estate Appear to be Working
Increasing at only 1.2% instead of the monthly average of 2.4% in October, the ChiComs are hoping this will prevent the crash they fear was coming in China’s Tier 1 and Tier 2 cities. Controls include tighter lending rules, higher down-payment requirements, limits on the number of properties one person may own, and bans on investments from those who don’t live in the area. However, the Chinese people are finding ways around these limits. Couples are divorcing, peer-to-peer lending is on the rise, and pooled accounts and partnerships are growing.
However, while this might be a sign the new controls are working, this could also be a small seasonal slowdown before yet more explosive growth or the start of the real estate bubble popping. Only time will tell.
**Russia and Eastern Europe**
Cheap Labor Prices Drawing MAnufacturing to Russia
Samsung and Ikea are leading a number of manufacturing firms in the construction of new manufacturing facilities in Russia as Chinese labor prices, regulatory costs, and legal overhead begin pushing manufacturing out of China.
Ukrainian ultranationalists numbering close to 30 individuals attacked a popular Russian band ahead of a concert in Kiev with the intention of preventing the concert. This is not the first time the Russian band has had to cancel a concert over security issues.
Russia Gains Allies in Bulgaria and Moldova
Following elections in the two Eastern European nations, Igor Dodon of Moldova’s Socialist Party and the Socialist-backed Rumen Radev of Bulgaria, both gained control of the Presidency in their respective countries.
Moldova, a parliamentary state, has a largely ceremonial President who serves as the Head of State with an appointed Prime Minister and cabinet from among the 101 members of the parliament and otherwise serves solely as the ceremonial leader of the country and the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces.
In Bulgaria, another parliamentary built on the same model as the other former Soviet republics, the President has more powers relating to foreign affairs while also serving as the Commander-in-Chief and has limited veto power in the form of the power to return legislation to the National Assembly for further debate – though the assembly may override this “veto” with a simple majority. Unlike in Moldova, where the Prime Minister is appointed by the President, the Prime Minister is chosen by Parliament in a similar manner to that of the British government.
China To Invest $11G in Eastern Europe
Sino-CEEF Holdings Ltd. – a state-owned enterprise – will be investing over 11 Billion in Eastern European nations such as Poland, Latvia, and the Czech Republic. As with all other Chinese investments, this one will come with strings attached.
Arms Buildup in Eastern Europe Intensifies
With Russian aggression looming large above their fears of terrorism, the nations of Eastern Europe are overwhelmingly shifting focus to deterring Russian imperialism. Though none of the nations of the region – Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Ukraine, Poland, etc. – could stop a Russian invasion even as a united front, the nations of the Baltic and Eastern Europe could be strong enough and powerful enough to make their conquest more painful and costly than Russia can afford. NATO has pledged to bolster these forces with “tripwire garrisons” of a battalion each from Germany, the US, Canada, and the UK. With the full knowledge these forces won’t be capable of stopping a Russian invasion, they are instead intended to provide an automatic activation of NATO Article 5 in the case of a Russian invasion.
In addition, Estonia and Lithuania are training civilian militias in guerrilla warfare operations with the intention of further deterring Russian aggression and making any potential occupation a nightmare.
One very interesting development regards Sweden and Finland. Longtime holdouts against NATO membership, Sweden and Finland have begun to turn against Russia and for NATO – a break from the Scandinavian Neutrality which was the rule of the day during the Cold War.
India Offers Relief in Currency Chaos
After Modi announced the surprise plan to demonetize larger notes and replace all smaller notes with new ones, India has dealt with almost two weeks of economic and financial chaos. Without enough of the new notes circulated to ATM’s, India – a nation still largely without the infrastructure for a cashless society – has seen steep economic harm from the crisis. Exchanges have been limited to Rs 2000 ($30) per week, down from Rs 4500 ($66) last week and banks are beginning to use indelible ink on the fingers of customers to prevent repeat customers and ensure a wider distribution of the new notes.
Exceptions included an Rs 250000 for weddings, Rs 50000 for merchants to pay wages in cash, and Rs 25000 for farmers against crop loans.
**Middle East**
Kurdish Peshmerga Withdraws From Manbij, Accede to Turkish Demands
Three months after a hard-fought campaign to free Manbij from ISIS control, the YPG have been forced to withdraw from Manbij in the face of Turkish threats. In their place, the YPG Peshmerga are turning over control to a local military council. Previously, the Arab majority city of Manbij had welcomes the arrival of the Kurds and requested the Kurds take over the city and rule it in their name. The US Envoy in the region claimed this was part of a US plan to turn over control of Arab majority towns in the area to local councils.
Kurds Prepare to Hold Onto Territorial Gains
Iraqi Kurdistan President Massoud Barzani (Kurdistan Democratic Party) announced recently that Kurdistan was not planning to sacrifice the territory they fought to free of ISIS control. At the core of this dispute is control over Mosul. For decades, both Baghdad and Arbil – the capital of Iraqi Kurdistan and the de facto capitol of Kurdistan as a whole – have laid claims to Mosul. Though overwhelmingly Arab, the areas on the border of Kurdistan – areas which the Kurds currently control – tend to be among the most diverse in the region. Experts speculate this could be the first step in a move towards a formal declaration of independence on the part of Arbil.
Iranian Diplomats Arrested by Government
The twelve diplomats arrested were all part of the team who negotiated the nuclear deal between the Obama administration and the Iranian government. Accused of espionage, these twelve members face a rather nasty death sentence if they are convicted in court.
Saudi Oil Minister: Trump Proposed Import Ban is Unworkable
The US imports over 1.1 Million barrels of oil from the Kingdom each day, with a further 3.4 Million barrels imported from all OPEC member states. That quantity makes up roughly 11% of all oil imported by the US – and only 10% of all Saudi Exports. As both the Saudi Oil Minister and many economists have pointed out, this would hurt the US more than Saudi Arabia – doubly so with the current glut of crude oil.
**Europe**
Marine Le Pen Could be Next President of France, That’s a Bad Thing
I’ve pointed out my issues with Le Pen before in the comments section here, but RedState has more on the subject. The Front National is not exactly a friend to American conservatives, whatever they may have to say on the subject of Islam.
Germany and France Threaten Britain With “Decades” of EU Contributions Post-Brexit
Both Germany and France are threatening Britain with demands of cash upon the implementation of the Brexit, and have stated any decision by the UK to remain in the Common Market – the only part of the EU which still polls highly in Britain – must include an agreement to allow unrestricted migration into the Isles.
Catalans Evenly Split on Secession One Year Out From Vote
Down from a 5.3 point lead for independence in July, Catalans currently favor remaining part of Spain by a mere 0.2 points. Well within the margin of error. As one of Spain’s most productive areas – accounting for close to 1/5 of Spain’s total GDP – the Catalan people regularly are at the forefront of the Spanish economy. Compared to Spain’s 23k/Capita and 23.6% of the population out of work, Catalonia boasts a GDP per capita closer to 28k/capita and an unemployment rate of 20% in 2014.
**Africa**
African Development Bank To Invest In Continental Power Grid
Citing a lack of cheap and reliable sources of electricity as hampering the continent’s industrial development, President of the African Development Bank Akwinwumi Adesina has announced a plan to invest $12G in developing electrical infrastructure throughout the continent. To help oversee this, the bank has created a new Vice-Presidency to act as the bank’s point man on energy infrastructure plans. Due to issues related to location and logistics, the bank will be focusing on green energy such as solar power and windmills – something which may actually work for them due to increased solar radiation on the equator and increased wind strength in key locations.
World’s First Malaria Vaccine To Be Tested in Africa in 2018
Known as Mosquirix, the vaccine was developed by GlaxoSmithKline and targets the P. falciparum parasite. Per trials, the vaccine will require a booster shot, which will increase the cost of the infrastructure needed to administer the vaccine and reduce the effectiveness of herd immunity without the booster.
**South America**
South American Agriculture Set To Flood Market
Per the Senior Director of Customer Risk Management at Gavilon Producer Solutions, South America is expected to produce up to 30M Metric Tons more corn and 7M Metric Tons more soybeans next year. This could be a serious boon to struggling South American economies as prices are expected to reach record highs during harvest in April. As noted in last week’s Foreign News Debrief, the boost in expectations in Argentina has seen a large increase in the amount of heavy farm equipment sold in that nation.
China Making Overtures to Latin America
Capitalizing on the US pullback from TPP, China is expected to make overtures to Latin American prospective members of the Trans-Pacific Partnership with regards to their own rival trading block. Previously, most Latin American nations had been shifting away from Chinese markets back to US ones with the shift from an economy driven by the primary sector – resource exploitation – to one driven by the secondary sector – manufacturing. However, with the US expected to pull back from international trade with protectionists in power in both political parties, Central and South American countries are once more looking to China as a trading partner.
