Senate thoughts from DJH.
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With the Presidential election over (thank God above), we now can focus on the future. Well… The future starts with the Senate. In 2018, 33 Senate seats will be up for reelection. Here is a state-by-state run down of each of them as it stands right now:
Arizona
Incumbent: Jeff Flake (R)
Incumbent’s Plans: Unofficially running
Arizona is one of three states on the Republican side where I expect a notable primary opposition to the incumbent. Jeff Flake has been a moderate Senator (especially on immigration) so he was bound to face opposition from the Right. It appears he may face more than one person, though. Former state Senator and 2016 candidate Keli Ward announced on October 27 she would challenge him. Flake could also face opposition from state Treasurer Jeff DeWit. DeWit isn’t running for reelection, so it’s possible he is looking at challenging Flake. There’s also a possibility of US Representative Matt Salmon running.
On the Democratic side, let’s get this yawnfest over. The last time Democrats had a contested US Senate primary in Arizona was 2010. Since then every nominee has been unanimously selected without opposition on the ballot, and 2018 will likely follow this pattern. US Representative Kyrsten Sinema is expected to run. And it doesn’t seem like anyone will challenge her. Perhaps former Representative Gabby Giffords, outgoing Representative and 2016 nominee Ann Kirkpatrick, or maybe retired astronaut Mike Kelly will run. But it seems like Sinema is the clear favorite to win the Democratic nomination- likely unopposed.
With that said, Arizona is what I call a “Football state.” Democrats always feel like there’s something there- and then the voters take the football out from under their feet…
California
Incumbent: Dianne Feinstein (D)
Incumbent’s Plans: Unknown
Dianne Feinstein will be 85 in 2018. She is the oldest person in the Senate, one of the oldest people in congress, and has been in the Senate since 1992. With that said it’s no wonder people are wondering if she’s set to retire. She hasn’t said what her plan is, though. If she is planning on running, one major potential opponent probably just left the race- Xavier Becerra, who was appointed Attorney General for California. Outgoing Representative and 2016 candidate Loretta Sanchez is seen as possible regardless of Feinstein’s decision. Hedge fund manager Tom Steyer (who may also be looking at running for President), Los Angeles mayor Eric Garcetti, and State Senate President Pro-Tempore Kevin de Leon have all also received mention. But if Feinstein runs, I imagine none of them will run.
On the GOP side- well, I really don’t know. California’s GOP is extremely weak. It’s possible US Representatives Kevin McCarthy and Darrell Issa run, but I really don’t know if they will.
Connecticut
Incumbent: Chris Murphy (D)
Incumbent’s Plans: Unknown (could run for President)
I couldn’t find anything about Connecticut. It’s likely that Murphy will run for reelection, but if he doesn’t then I don’t know who would step in to take his place. Dannel Malloy, the sitting Governor, could run for the seat if he doesn’t. Murphy has been mentioned as a possible candidate for President in 2020, and it’s possible he decides that running for President is better than being stuck in the Senate.
On the GOP side there isn’t much to go on, and it’s not shocking. While there is talk of a GOP wave in Connecticut, the fact is that unless it becomes a tsunami then the GOP will not be seeing much success from it in the Senate.
Delaware
Incumbent: Tom Carper (D)
Incumbent’s Plans: Unknown
Tom Carper will be 71 in 2018, so talk about him retiring has- of course- begun. If he does, then there’s a possibility of outgoing Governor Jack Markell running, alongside Representative-elect Lisa Blunt Rochester. On the Republican side, there’s a possibility that maybe state Treasurer Ken Simpler. No matter what, it seems likely that Delaware will stay blue this cycle.
Florida
Incumbent: Bill Nelson (D)
Incumbent’s Plans: Running
Oh my humble abode… Bill Nelson is going to run for reelection and I don’t think it’s likely that we’ll see any opposition. Maybe a perennial or minor candidate- but nobody who’s going to present any major threat.
On the GOP side, however, a major primary battle is setting up. 2016 candidates were all denied the nomination because of Marco Rubio’s entrance extremely late in the game. No doubt that many of them are a bit angry about that. Real estate developer Carlos Beruff (who didn’t drop out), US Representative Ron DeSantis, outgoing Representative David Jolly, and Lieutenant Governor Carlos Lopez-Cantera are all seen as possible candidates. But the big name is Governor Rick Scott. Scott has openly said he’s open to running for Senate. The Florida GOP primary is set to be a massive one.
On to the general- well, let me put it this way. I have no clue what’ll happen. Scott isn’t the most well-liked Governor so if he runs and wins the nomination there’s a good chance he’ll be defeated. If it’s someone else, I really don’t know. The only thing I know is that it will be an extremely tough race for Nelson and the GOP nominee.
Hawaii
Incumbent: Mazie Hirono (D)
Incumbent’s Plans: Unknown
Hawaii is going to vote Democrat, regardless of the Republican nominee. But the question for this year- who will the Democrat be? Mazie Hirono hasn’t made clear her plans for 2018. But it’s very possible that she’ll face primary opposition if she runs- strong primary opposition in the form of US Representative Tulsi Gabbard. Gabbard is rumored to have a massive war chest available to her, and rumor is she plans on using it. Of course the rumor is that she also may be looking at 2020.
Indiana
Incumbent: Joe Donnelly (D)
Incumbent’s Plans: Unknown
Joe Donnelly, who’ll be 63 in 2018, is expected to run for the nomination again. If he doesn’t it’s hard to say who’ll end up taking his place. It’s not out of the question for Evan Bayh to run again- unlikely but this is politics. Or perhaps the original 2016 nominee- former Representative Baron Hill- runs.
On the GOP side there’s a lot of reason to be happy with this seat. Indiana is trending more and more Republican, so there’s a great chance for an upset. But they need a candidate. It’s possible that 2016 candidate Marlin Stutzman will run again. Representative Susan Brooks has also been mentioned.
It’s very likely, at the moment, that the GOP will win this seat. But there’s a possibility that a strong Democratic challenger could appear.
Maine
Incumbent: Angus King (I, caucuses with D)
Incumbent’s Plans: Running
Maine’s going to be interesting. Independent Angus King is running for reelection and is likely going to face Republican Governor Paul LePage. LePage declared his candidacy on May 10 (stating that he would run unless selected to be a part of the Trump administration, which seems unlikely). The Democratic nomination may not even happen due to King’s constant caucusing with Democrats. LePage is unpopular, and King is extremely popular. But with Maine seeming to turn redder each election, it’s also possible that LePage will pull off just enough to win. King is an easy favorite right now, but keep an eye on this election- we could see a massive upset.
Maryland
Incumbent: Ben Cardin (D)
Incumbent’s Plans: Unknown
Ben Cardin will be 75 in 2018, so talk about him retiring is happening. No clue if he’s going to but if he does, the list of candidates on the Democratic side is rather big. US Representatives Elijah Cummings, John Delaney, Donna Edwards, and John Sarbanes have all been mentioned. It’s also possible former Governor and 2016 Presidential candidate Martin O’Malley runs.
For the GOP there’s nothing really good to look at Senate-wise. Perhaps Larry Hogan’s popularity will carry over into the Senate race, but I wouldn’t bet on that. Maybe former Governor Bob Ehrlich runs. This seat is solid blue.
Massachusetts
Incumbent: Elizabeth Warren (D)
Incumbent’s Plans: Unknown (could run for President)
Elizabeth Warren will likely run for and likely win the Democratic nomination. The only reason she wouldn’t is to focus on her possible 2020 campaign. And I haven’t been able to find anything about her possible replacement- though Joe Kennedy III has been rumored to be looking at a bigger stage.
The GOP primary looks set up to be oddly similar to the 2016 GOP Presidential primary. The major outsider (Curt Schilling) running against probably season veterans (mention of Bill Weld and Mitt Romney, alongside Karyn Polito) and somehow winning. Schilling is running- or at least he’s waiting for his wife to say yes to him running (a smart man). If he does then odds are Warren will easily be reelected but much like 2016- who knows.
Michigan
Incumbent: Debbie Stabenow (D)
Incumbent’s Plans: Unknown
Debbie Stabenow will be 68 in 2018, and there hasn’t been much talk on whether or not she will end up retiring. It’s very likely she will run for Senate again and win the nomination.
For the GOP, this seat is seen as a major get. Michigan voted for Trump so they’re hoping to get the same voters to vote twice in a row for the GOP. Whether or not it’ll work I don’t know. Representatives Justin Amash and Candice Miller have been mentioned, and Amash has openly talked about his desire to seek higher office in the future. Perhaps incumbent Governor Rick Snyder will also run since he’s term limited.
Michigan is undoubtedly a tossup. The only real thing we know is that Detroit will vote Democrat again.
Minnesota
Incumbent: Amy Klobuchar (D)
Incumbent’s Plans: Unknown (could run for President or Governor)
Amy Klobuchar is seen as a possible candidate for Governor and/or President so it’s possible she’ll retire from the Senate. She’s young so she’s not really in a major hurry. If she does retire, former Minneapolis mayor R.T. Rybak, state Attorney General Lori Swanson, and U.S. Representative Tim Walz have been mentioned as possible candidates.
On the GOP side, however, the race isn’t as big. US Representative Erik Paulsen has been mentioned as a possible candidate. And we may hear from Michelle Bachmann again. Former Governor and 2012 Presidential candidate Tim Pawlenty was mentioned as a possible candidate- but in response to this, Pawlenty has stated he’s retired politically.
Mississippi
Incumbent: Roger Wicker (R)
Incumbent’s Plans: Unknown
Roger Wicker will be 67 in 2018 and is probably going to run for reelection. Its possible 2014 candidate Chris McDaniel runs against him. The Democratic nomination really isn’t anything to concern yourself with- let’s move on.
Missouri
Incumbent: Claire McCaskill (D)
Incumbent’s Plans: Running
Missouri- the Republican state that seems to vote Democrat a lot. Claire McCaskill is going to run and win the Democratic nomination, probably unopposed. For the GOP, Representatives Sam Graves, Vicky Hartzler, Billy Long, and Ann Wagner have all been mentioned as possibilities. Republicans have an edge because it’s Missouri but Missouri could reelect McCaskill.
Montana
Incumbent: John Tester (D)
Incumbent’s Plans: Running
John Tester is running and likely won’t face any major primary opposition.
On the GOP side, we could see something interesting. Rob O’Neill, the man who claimed to have been the one to fire the gun that killed Bin Laden, has been mentioned as a possible candidate. US Representative Ryan Zinke and former Governor Marc Racicot are also seen as possible.
Montana is a state that leans to the GOP, and will be heavily targeted by it to make sure they control it.
Nebraska
Incumbent: Deb Fischer (R)
Incumbent’s Plans: Unknown
Deb Fischer could possibly run for reelection, and I really don’t know if there’ll be anyone on either side to stop her. Her Democratic opposition will likely be uneventful and if she does run I doubt she’ll see a primary opponent.
Nevada
Incumbent: Dean Heller
Incumbent’s Plans: Unknown (could run for Governor)
Dean Heller will be 58 in 2018, so a Senate reelection bid would seem likely, but he’s also seen as a possible candidate for Governor in place of term limited Brian Sandoval. Sandoval, in return, is seen as a possible candidate for Senate.
On the Democratic side US Representative Dina Titus, attorney Rory Reid (son of Harry Reid), and businessman Stephen Cloobeck have been mentioned.
Nevada is a tossup state, but it does seem to be going further to the Left. Honestly this is the Democrat’s best hope at a pickup in 2018. Will they actually get it? I don’t know.
New Jersey
Incumbent: Bob Menendez (D)
Incumbent’s Plans: Unknown
Menendez has the support of the Democratic Party, which likely means he’ll be running in 2018 again with little to no primary opposition.
In the GOP primary, we have a bit of a different race. Incumbent Governor and 2016 Presidential candidate Chris Christie has been mentioned, alongside State Senators Thomas Kean, Jr. and Joe Kyrillos.
I expect New Jersey will remain in the Democratic column for another year, honestly. The GOP bench in Jersey isn’t very strong and if Christie does run, and wins the nomination Menendez might as well begin drafting legislation for 2019.
New Mexico
Incumbent: Martin Heinrich (D)
Incumbent’s Plans: Running
Martin Heinrich is going to run for reelection, and it’s also possible he’ll run for President in 2020. Primary opposition seems unlikely at best.
For the GOP, Albuquerque mayor Richard Berry, incumbent Governor Susana Martinez, US Representative Steve Pearce, and Lieutenant Governor John Sanchez have all been mentioned as possible candidates.
New Mexico has been leaning to the Left for a while now and I don’t know if it will end up changing. Martinez, if she runs, could change the complexion of the race. Heinrich is probably the favorite- but Martinez is popular.
New York
Incumbent: Kirsten Gillibrand (D)
Incumbent’s Plans: Running
Kirsten Gillibrand is running for reelection, and likely won’t face primary opposition. Republican Representative Chris Gibson has been mentioned as a possible candidate as well. It’s a safe seat for Gillibrand, who was previously mentioned as a possible 2020 contender before ultimately saying she will not run.
Incumbent: Heidi Heitkamp (D)
Incumbent’s Plans: Unknown (could be in the Trump administration)
Heidi Heitkamp is expected to run again if she’s in the seat. But rumor is she’s being looked at for the Trump administration. If she doesn’t get the nod I really don’t know who the nominee will be.
For the GOP, the list is obviously longer. US Representative Kevin Cramer and state Representative Rick Becker have been mentioned.
North Dakota will likely go GOP whether or not Heitkamp is in office. She won in 2012 by less than 3,000 votes- and North Dakota has only gotten more Republican since then.
Ohio
Incumbent: Sherrod Brown (D)
Incumbent’s Plans: Unknown (could run for President)
Sherrod Brown is widely expected to run again for Senate, but it’s been mentioned that he could run for President in 2020. If he doesn’t I honestly expect Representative Tim Ryan to run for the seat.
For the GOP, they may have their candidate already. 2012 nominee and state Treasurer Josh Mandel, who announced his candidacy on December 7. While he’s probably going to be the nominee, talk about John Kasich has also occurred due to him being term limited in 2018.
As for how the race will end up going- Ohio seems to be going further and further to the Right. I’d say Brown has an edge, but don’t be shocked if Mandel (who I expect will be the GOP nominee) ends up with an upset.
Pennsylvania
Incumbent: Bob Casey, Jr. (D)
Incumbent’s Plans: Running
Incumbent Bob Casey, Jr. is running and probably won’t face primary opposition.
For the GOP, US Representatives Lou Barletta, Tom Marino, and Pat Meehan, alongside State Senate Majority Leader Jake Corman, have been mentioned.
Pennsylvania is a tossup right now. The GOP is going to try to get the same coalition that gave Trump the win in 2016 to come out for their nominee.
Rhode Island
Incumbent: Sheldon Whitehouse (D)
Incumbent’s Plans: Unknown
I haven’t seen anything about Rhode Island. Whitehouse will be 63 in 2018 and is in a pretty safe state. If he runs for reelection I fully expect him to win with ease.
Tennessee
Incumbent: Bob Corker (R)
Incumbent’s Plans: Unknown (could be in the Trump administration or run for Governor)
Bob Corker has been mentioned as a possible Governor or Secretary of State so nobody knows if he’s going to run for reelection. If he does he’ll face perennial candidate Larry Crim but that’s really it. For the Democrats they could nominate Karl Dean but if he is I wouldn’t expect him to win. This is a safe GOP state.
Texas
Incumbent: Ted Cruz (R)
Incumbent’s Plans: Running
This is the second GOP-held state where I expect a major primary opponent. Ted Cruz is likely going to face opposition from the middle, and Representative Michael McCaul appears set to be that guy. McCaul was passed over by Trump for the Secretary of Homeland Security position, so it’s possible he’ll be angry and want to get higher office. Will he beat Cruz? Unlikely, at best. But it’s possible that he can give the Senator a good run for his money.
On the Democratic side, Representatives Joaquin Castro and Beto O’Rourke have been mentioned. But if they run they probably will get destroyed in the general. Texas is a major GOP state, so it’s unlikely that there will be any change.
Utah
Incumbent: Orrin Hatch (R)
Incumbent’s Plans: Unknown
The third- and final- state, Utah. Orrin Hatch previously said he planned on retiring, but has since said he may run again. (If there’s a reason to support term limits, Hatch is it…) Former Governor and 2012 Presidential candidate Jon Huntsman, Jr. has also been mentioned as a possible candidate and it appears we’re set for a Hatch-Huntsman match. Rumors have also said 2016 Independent candidate Evan McMullin is interested. For Democrats, Salt Lake County Mayor Ben McAdams and former Representative Jim Matheson have been mentioned. But they might as well not run- Utah is solidly red.
Vermont
Incumbent: Bernie Sanders (I, caucuses with D)
Incumbent’s Plans: Running
Bernie Sanders is running for reelection and will probably win in a landslide. Democratic activist Al Giordano is planning on running because Sanders split the party with his Presidential campaign (though looking back, it would’ve been better for the Democrats had they nominated someone- literally ANYONE- other than Hillary).
Virginia
Incumbent: Tim Kaine (D)
Incumbent’s Plans: Running
Poor Tim Kaine- went from being one heartbeat away from the Presidency to, well, nowhere. He’s back in the Senate and plans on running again. He probably won’t face primary opposition. Kaine was mentioned as a possible 2020 candidate but he’s ruled that out.
For the GOP, however, they could be looking at a tough primary battle. 2016 Presidential candidate Carly Fiorina has been mentioned, alongside US Representatives Dave Brat, Barbara Comstock, and Rob Wittman. Former state Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli is also seen as possible.
Virginia has been leaning to the Left for a while now. But historically, elections in Virginia have been very close- heck, 2014’s Senate race was a lot closer than previously expected. So this is probably going to be a tossup.
Washington
Incumbent: Maria Cantwell (D)
Incumbent’s Plans: Unknown
Maria Cantwell is going to be 60 in 2018 so she’ll likely run for and win reelection. No real need to say more, Washington is solidly Democrat.
West Virginia
Incumbent: Joe Manchin (D)
Incumbent’s Plans: Running
Senator Joe Manchin is planning on running for reelection, and honestly it’s likely that he’ll win. He’s popular in the state and has been a very Center-of-the-Road Senator. It’s unlikely that he’ll face primary opposition. And it’s not super likely that he will be defeated in the primary- but the GOP will try it’s best to make sure he is.
For the GOP, the tale is different. US Representatives Evan Jenkins, David McKinley, and Alex Mooney have all been mentioned. However one name that’s been mentioned is a 4’9’’ woman who has some gold. Mary Lou Retton could run for the seat- she’s been rumored to be interested in being in politics.
Wisconsin
Incumbent: Tammy Baldwin (D)
Incumbent’s Plans: Unknown (could run for President)
There’s some rumors that Baldwin could run and be the first woman and first LGBT President, but that’s not really supported by a ton of evidence. I expect Baldwin will run and win the Democratic nomination with ease.
On the GOP side, you have Milwaukee County Sheriff David Clarke, US Representative Sean Duffy, and Lieutenant Governor Rebecca Kleefisch.
Wisconsin is a definite tossup. I’d say Baldwin is the favorite- but Russ Feingold was a massive favorite in 2016 and, well, see how that ended.
Wyoming
Incumbent: John Barrasso (R)
Incumbent’s Plans: Unknown
Incumbent John Barrasso is expected to run since he’ll be 66 in 2018. He’s probably not going to face any major opposition.
Going off of everything I’ve just said, here is the final analysis for the moment:
-The GOP is extremely likely to keep the Senate
-Donald Trump will really need to screw up to lose the Senate
-There are three GOP incumbents that’re likely to face major opposition, and only one is probably safe
-The GOP is likely going to target Montana, North Dakota, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, West Virginia, Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Missouri, and possibly Virginia and New Mexico.
-The Democrats are likely going to target Nevada, and maybe Arizona.
