Thoughts from DJH.
***
On December 9, 2016, Texas Senator Ted Cruz and Florida Representative Ron DeSantis announced their intentions to place before the 115th Congress (which starts on January 3, 2017) a proposal for a new Constitutional Amendment. This amendment would establish term limits for congress. Two terms for Senators, three terms for Representatives. This is likely not going to pass in congress because, well- it’s congress. So it’s likely that DeSantis and Cruz are hoping for the states to approve it.
Let’s assume this amendment passes. There would be some obvious exceptions to the rule- partial terms, for example. And I couldn’t find if they would allow non-consecutive terms, but I’d assume no. What would the Senate AND the House look like?
Senate
Class 1
If this amendment passed, Class 1 Senators (who’re up for reelection in 2018) will be the first to experience the effects. Including partial term Senators, there would be 17 total Senators left out of 33. Of those 17, six are Republicans, 10 are Democrats, and one is Independent but caucuses with Democrats. The following five Senators served prior to 2012 but would be eligible for reelection:
*John Barrasso (R-WY), appointed in 2007 following Craig Thomas’ passing, elected to serve the remainder in 2008
*Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY), appointed in 2009 following Hillary Clinton’s appointment to Secretary of State, elected to serve the remainder in 2010
*Dean Heller (R-NV), appointed in 2011 following John Ensign’s resignation
*Joe Manchin (D-WV), elected in a special election in 2010 following Robert Byrd’s passing
*Roger Wicker (R-MS), appointed in 2007 following Trent Lott’s resignation, elected to serve the remainder in 2008
The following were elected in 2012:
*Tammy Baldwin (D-WI)
*Ted Cruz (R-TX)
*Joe Donnelly (D-IN)
*Jeff Flake (R-AZ)
*Deb Fischer (R-NE)
*Martin Heinrich (D-NM)
*Heidi Heitkamp (D-ND)
*Mazie Hirono (D-HI)
*Tim Kaine (D-VA)
*Angus King (I-ME)
*Chris Murphy (D-CT)
*Elizabeth Warren (D-MA)
Class 2
Class 2 will be up for election in 2020, alongside the Presidential election. Including partial-term Senators, there would be 15 Senators in total out of 33- four Democrats and 11 Republicans. The following three Senators were all elected in special elections prior to 2014:
*Cory Booker (D-NJ), elected in a special election in 2013 to serve the remainder of Frank Lautenberg’s term following his passing
*Chris Coons (D-DE), elected in a special election in 2010 to serve the remainder of Vice President Joe Biden’s term
*Ed Markey (D-MA), elected in a special election in 2013 following John Kerry’s appointment to Secretary of State
The following were elected in 2014:
*Bill Cassidy (R-LA)
*Tom Cotton (R-AR)
*Steve Daines (R-MT)
*Joni Ernst (R-IA)
*Cory Gardner (R-CO)
*Shelley Moore Capito (R-WV)
*David Perdue (R-GA)
*Gary Peters (D-MI)
*Mike Rounds (R-SD)
*Ben Sasse (R-NE)
*Dan Sullivan (R-AK)
*Thom Tills (R-NC)
There is also likely going to be a seat that’s up in Alabama due to Jeff Sessions’ appointment to Attorney General.
Class 3
Class 3 will be up for reelection in 2022. This class will have the least amount of remaining Senators. Of the 34 seats that will be up, only 10 seats are held by people elected to full terms in 2016, six Democrats and four Republicans. Three total Senators held office prior to 2016, and they were:
*James Lankford (R-OK), elected in a special election in 2014 following Tom Coburn’s resignation
*Brian Schatz (D-HI), appointed in 2012 following Dan Inouye’s passing, elected to serve the remainder in 2014
*Tim Scott (R-SC), appointed in 2013 following Jim DeMint’s resignation, elected to serve the remainder in 2016
The other seven who would be up for reelection are:
*Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV)
*Tammy Duckworth (D-IL)
*Kamala Harris (D-CA)
*Maggie Hassan (D-NH)
*John Neely Kennedy (R-LA)
*Chris Van Hollen (D-MD)
*Todd Young (R-IN)
Leadership and Membership
With all of that said, here’s what the total membership would look like amongst eligible candidates:
*Total of 42 Senators
*Total of 20 Democrats
*Total of 22 Republicans
*One Independent who caucuses with Democrats
Now, there’s a few problems for the Senate and they all revolve around leadership. The President pro tempore is a title chosen by US Senators to be the Senate’s President in case of the Vice President’s absence. Since 1949, all President pro tempores have been the most senior members of the majority party. At the moment that is Orrin Hatch who took office 17 days before Jimmy Carter’s inauguration. For Democrats, it would be Patrick Leahy who took office two years before Hatch. If the amendment were to pass, the tradition of “the most senior” would be nullified. The most senior person on this list for the GOP is John Barrasso, and for the Democrats it’s Kirsten Gillibrand. This likely means that each party would have to elect a new President pro tempore. And both parties would be in need of new leadership for the majority/minority positions. At the moment, the leaders of the parties in the 115th congress (Mitch McConnell, Chuck Schumer, John Cornyn, Dick Durbin, and Patty Murray) are all ineligible for another term.
Simply put, this Amendment will definitely make a massive change in the Senate.
House of Representatives
Basics
Three terms in the House means, going off of 2018’s elections, if you were elected in 2014 you can run again (or specially elected in 2013). If you were elected before then, you’re done. 6 years is the one part of this amendment I most have an issue with- 6 years is not much time. It will definitely get the Representatives to do a lot more done in such a short time.
There are under a hundred members of the House that would be eligible for reelection (I tried counting but no good at the maths). I saw that there were 57 elected in 2015 and 15 elected in special elections, but I didn’t calculate for 2016- which I imagine will add about 30 at least who’re eligible for 2018 (a few were replacing other Representatives elected in 2015 and some have been in the House before). Simply put, that would be a massive turnaround in the House. The GOP will likely remain in control due to the wave in 2014.
So 2018 would have over 300 incumbents who’re retiring whether they want to or not. Amongst them is Florida Representative Ron DeSantis, who was elected in 2012. DeSantis is rumored to be looking at the Senate, though.
Leadership
This is where the House will get crazy- leadership. The House majority/minority leader and whip positions likely would be filled by people who were elected in 2014 due to seniority. The Dean of the House would probably end up being the oldest member of the House. But then there is one other seat: the Speaker of the House.
Legally speaking, anyone can be Speaker as long as they meet all qualifications to be a member of the House (so, QueenB or FR for Speaker). Since Republicans gained control of the House in 2011, eight votes have been cast for non-sitting Representatives. In the future, that number will likely grow a lot. We will probably begin to see a post-November jockeying by outside candidates to be the Speaker of the House, who will also probably be term limited to 3 terms (or less if they’re a Representative). This means that from Election Day to January 3, we will see a massive amount of pushing in Washington to be the Speaker of the House.
Statement on what this means
I, personally, support his legislation. I am a major fan of term limits. Why? They make the people matter more. They make members of congress actually have to do stuff, not procrastinate until after the election. They put pressure on congress- where it belongs.
It also makes it easier for the more people to make decisions for their future. If an incumbent runs it is pointless 95% of the time to challenge them. You’re throwing money away at something that will never succeed (unless you’re in a tossup district or the incumbent is incredibly unpopular). Incumbents have money, they have name recognition, and they have the party backing usually (not always officially). Which means that any challenger in the primary will likely get destroyed, and the general won’t be much better. They can stay in power for life. I never even heard from Vern Buchanan outside of signs down here- I don’t think he did much of any campaigning at all. This is not right.
And look- I understand the “Elections are supposed to be term limits” stuff. I really do. But when it comes down to “There is no opposition” then that doesn’t hold up. In 2014, 30 Representatives and one Senator ran without general opposition. Many members of congress face little primary opposition, and usually it’s not noteworthy.
We need change in Washington. Are term limits going to fix everything? Ha- not even close. Will they at least be a step in the right direction? I hope so.
