A follow-up to DJH’s posts regarding the 2018 elections.
Safe Democratic States
California
Incumbent: Dianne Feinstein
Incumbent’s Plan: Unknown
It’s unknown whether Feinstein will run or not. If she does, I doubt she’ll face any notable Democratic opposition in California’s Jungle Primary. But if she doesn’t, then it gets interesting. The candidates most talked about are LA Mayor Eric Garcetti, former US Representative Loretta Sanchez, and hedge fund manager Tom Steyer (though Steyer is rumored to be looking to a bigger prize in 2020). If she doesn’t, it’s hard to say who the Democratic favorite is. If she does, well then it’ll be her seat.
Connecticut
Incumbent: Chris Murphy
Incumbent’s Plan: Unknown
Murphy is likely to run in 2018 and likely won’t face any primary opposition. There also isn’t much chance of him facing any good GOP opposition.
Delaware
Incumbent: Tom Carper
Incumbent’s Plan: Unknown
Tom Carper is up there in age, so obviously people are talking about “Well maybe he won’t run!” If he does, he won’t face opposition. If he doesn’t, then the candidates I’ve seen include Attorney General Mattew Denn, outgoing Governor Jack Markell, and Joe Biden. Not joking on that last one- if Carper retired, it wouldn’t shock me if Biden opted to run again. And if Biden entered, he would win in a landslide.
Hawaii
Incumbent: Mazie Hirono
Incumbent’s Plan: Running
With Tulsi Gabbard officially out, Mazie Hirono will coast to reelection with no primary opposition and no notable GOP opposition.
Maryland
Incumbent: Ben Cardin
Incumbent’s Plan: Unknown
Ben Cardin is in Tom Carper’s boat- so there’s talk about him possibly retiring. If he does, former US Representative Donna Edwards, former Governor Martin O’Malley, and US Representative Elijah Cummings are considered possible candidates.
Massachusetts
Incumbent: Elizabeth Warren
Incumbent’s Plan: Running
Warren is running and will win without opposition in the Democratic primary. She will face GOP opposition (possibly in the form of former MLB pitcher Curt Schilling or businessman Rick Green) but it won’t be noteworthy enough to topple her.
New Jersey
Incumbent: Bob Menendez
Incumbent’s Plan: Unknown
Menendez is widely expected to run for reelection, however talk about him retiring is coming up due to his history of corruption. If he does, then the Democratic primary is hard to say. And of course, on the GOP side- there’s nothing there worth reporting. Maybe outgoing Governor Chris Christie runs and loses in a landslide.
New York
Incumbent: Kirsten Gillibrand
Incumbent’s Plan: Running
Gillibrand will win her primary easily with little to no opposition, and likely won’t face any major GOP opponents.
Rhode Island
Incumbent: Sheldon Whitehouse
Incumbent’s Plan: Running
Whitehouse will win reelection easily, likely with no opponent in the primary as well.
Vermont (Independent caucusing with Democrats)
Incumbent: Bernie Sanders
Incumbent’s Plan: Running
Bernie’s running, and will win easily. There’s a chance activist Al Giordano will run against him as a Democrat, but he’s likely going to fail massively in that challenge.
Washington
Incumbent: Maria Cantwell
Incumbent’s Plan: Unknown
Cantwell will likely run with no opposition in the primary and little opposition from the GOP.
Likely Democratic States
Maine (Independent caucusing with Democrats)
Incumbent: Angus King
Incumbent’s Plan: Running
Angus King is running for reelection, and his major opponent seems to be outgoing Governor Paul LePage. LePage stated that if he wasn’t nominated to the Trump administration he would run. Well, he wasn’t- and now he’s waiting for his wife to give the OK. I expect she will and that we will see a King-LePage fight. The Democrats may not even nominate anyone because of King’s constant joining with them. But the thing that makes this a likely state is King is extremely popular. LePage, on the other hand, is not.
Minnesota
Incumbent: Amy Klobuchar
Incumbent’s Plan: Running
Klobuchar will win her primary, likely uncontested. On the GOP side, there’s not a major candidate out there. US Representative Erik Paulsen has been mentioned, and it honestly wouldn’t shock me if Michelle Bachmann runs for the seat. The only reason this isn’t a safe seat is because the GOP could find someone decent. If they don’t, then I’ll move it to safe.
New Mexico
Incumbent: Martin Heinrich
Incumbent’s Plan: Running
Heinrich will face no primary opposition, but could face some solid GOP opposition. New Mexico is a Democrat-leaning state, but the Republican governor Susana Martinez is rumored to be looking into a run. If she does, then it’ll throw the race more into the air as she’s pretty popular. But if she doesn’t, it’ll likely stay in Heinrich’s corner.
West Virginia
Incumbent: Joe Manchin
Incumbent’s Plan: Running
Joe Manchin is a fairly well-liked Senator in West Virginia, and is unlikely to face any major opposition. It’s possible he’ll face a notable opponent in the general, but he’s led every poll against all opponents by large margins. Potential candidates for the GOP include US Representatives Evan Jenkins, David McKinley, Alex Mooney, state Attorney General Patrick Morrisey, and gymnast Mary Lou Retton.
Leaning Democratic States
Virginia
Incumbent: Tim Kaine
Incumbent’s Plan: Running
Tim Kaine is going to win the primary easily, but from there it gets murky. Honestly the biggest reason why I put Virginia in the leaning column is how close it’s been over the past few years. In 2016 Trump barely lost, and in 2014 Senator Warner barely won. But in both cases- the Democrat won. The GOP could nominate businesswoman Carly Fiorina, US Representatives Dave Brat and Barbara Comstock, former Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli, and entrepreneur Pete Snyder.
Tossup States
Florida
Incumbent: Bill Nelson (Democrat)
Incumbent’s Plan: Running
Nelson won’t face any primary opposition.
The GOP primary appears set to be a massive race- with discouraged 2016 candidates preparing a fight. Governor Rick Scott is the favorite, but it wouldn’t shock me if he ultimately doesn’t run. US Representative RonDeSantis is the guy I would love to see run as well.
If this state had a ranking, it would be leaning Democrat due to polling between Scott and Nelson.
Michigan
Incumbent: Debbie Stabenow (Democrat)
Incumbent’s Plan: Unknown
Stabenow is expected to run for reelection and win her party nomination easily.
The GOP primary could involve US Representative Justin Amash and Macomb County Public Works Commissioner Candice Miller.
If I had to rank this, it’d be a leaning-Democrat state due to it’s history.
Montana
Incumbent: John Tester (Democrat)
Incumbent’s Plan: Running
John Tester will win his primary easily.
The GOP could see an interesting primary. Rob O’Neill, the Navy SEAL who claims to have killed Bin Laden, is rumored to be interested, and it is possible Ryan Zinke will step down as Sec. of the Interior to run.
If I had to rate this, I’d say it’s leaning Republican, but Tester is fairly popular so it wouldn’t shock me if he won.
Nevada
Incumbent: Dean Heller (Republican)
Incumbent’s Plan: Running
Dean Heller opted not to run for the Governor’s office and will not face primary opposition.
For the Democrats, some candidates include Rory Reid (son of Harry Reid), businessman Stephen Cloobeck, and US Representative Dina Titus.
If I had to rate this, I’d say leaning Republican due to Heller being fairly popular.
Ohio
Incumbent: Sherrod Brown (Democrat)
Incumbent’s Plan: Running
Sherrod Brown is going to win his primary without opposition, and I expect Josh Mandel will win his the same way.
If I had to rate this, I’d say leaning Republican due to Brown’s falling numbers and Mandel’s rising ones.
Pennsylvania
Incumbent: Bob Casey, Jr. (Democrat)
Incumbent’s Plan: Running
Bob Casey, Jr. won’t face primary opposition.
The GOP primary is rumored to possibly include State Senate Majority Leader Jake Corman and US Representatives Lou Barletta, Tom Marino, and Pat Meehan.
If I had to rank this, I’d say leaning Democrat due to the lack of a GOP bench.
Wisconsin
Incumbent: Tammy Baldwin
Incumbent’s Plan: Unknown
Baldwin is expected to run without opposition in the primary.
The GOP primary is set to be a massive one. US Representatives Glenn Grothman, Sean Duffy, and Mike Gallagher, State Senate Majority Leader Scott Fitzgerald, Lt. Gov. Rebeca Kleefisch, and Milwaukee County Sheriff David Clarke, have all been mentioned.
If I had to rank this, I’d say leaning Democrat due to no GOP frontrunner, but it isn’t that far from being a leaning Republican seat.
Leaning Republican States
Indiana
Incumbent: Joe Donnelly (Democrat)
Incumbent’s Plan: Running
Joe Donnelly will likely face no opposition in the Democratic primary. But that’s the best he’ll get, honestly. Indiana is an increasingly Republican state, so there’s a very good chance this will be his only term in the Senate. Potential GOP candidates include US Representatives Todd Rokita, Jim Banks, Susan Brooks, Luke Messer, Jackie Walorski, and former US Representative Marlin Stutzman. Honestly, I only put Indiana in the leaning column because Indiana has a history of support Democrats sometimes. And given how close it was until the end in 2016…
Missouri
Incumbent: Claire McCaskill (Democrat)
Incumbent’s Plan: Running
Claire McCaskill is going to run for reelection, and likely won’t face opposition in the primaries. But then she comes to reality. She is easily one of the most at-risk Senators, and I only list her here because of Missouri’s history. The GOP could nominate any number of candidates, but 2016 gubernatorial candidate Peter Kinder is the one I’d love to see the most. US Representatives Sam Graves, Vicky Hartzler, Billy Long, and Ann Wagner are all possible as well. There’s also the chance that 2016 Libertarian Presidential candidate Austin Petersen runs.
Likely Republican States
Arizona
Incumbent: Jeff Flake
Incumbent’s Plan: Unknown
Jeff Flake is likely going to run for reelection, but there’s a question on whether or not he’ll be the nominee. State Treasurer Jeff DeWit is rumored to be interested in running due to Flake’s moderate history, and 2016 candidate Kelli Ward has already declared her candidacy. The Democrats are likely going to nominate US Representative Kyrsten Sinema, but she’s not likely to win. There’s a chance that Democrats could do something if Trump messes up badly- but even then, it’s a fairly distant chance.
North Dakota
Incumbent: Heidi Heitkamp (Democrat)
Incumbent’s Plan: Unknown, could be in the Trump administration
Heidi Heitkamp is likely going to run for reelection without any primary opposition. But after that, she’s likely going to become the outgoing US Senator from North Dakota. In 2012, she won reelection by just under 3,000 votes. This during a heavily Democrat-friendly year. So it’s very likely she’ll lose reelection.
For the GOP, the top candidate is probably US Representative Kevin Cramer. Other potential candidates include State Representative Rick Becker and State Senator Tom Campbell.
Safe Republican States
Alabama (SPECIAL ELECTION)
Incumbent: Unknown
Incumbent’s Plan: Unknown
Sessions is likely to resign to become the Attorney General, and because of that Alabama will hold a special election for his seat. It’s been announced that it’ll be held in 2018, but we don’t know who the favorite to replace him will be right now. No matter who it is, it’ll be Republican (as Governor Robert Bentley is Republican) and in the Special Election it’ll likely be a Republican that wins.
Mississippi
Incumbent: Roger Wicker
Incumbent’s Plan: Unknown
Wicker is widely expected to run for reelection in 2018, and is expected to win easily. Wicker is unlikely to face any primary opposition, though mentions of 2014 candidate Chris McDaniel have come up.
Nebraska
Incumbent: Deb Fischer
Incumbent’s Plan: Unknown
Fischer is expected to run for reelection and win easily, likely with no opposition in the primaries.
Tennessee
Incumbent: Bob Corker
Incumbent’s Plan: Unknown, could run for Governor
The Tennessee seat is a lot different than the others in this group. Bob Corker, if he runs, will likely win reelection and won’t face major opposition in the primaries. But rumor is that he’s looking at running for Governor in 2018. If he does run, US Representative Marsha Blackburn is considered the frontrunner for his seat. On the Democratic side, there’s talk about former Nashville mayor Karl Dean running but it would be a pointless campaign honestly.
Texas
Incumbent: Ted Cruz
Incumbent’s Plan: Running
Ted Cruz is likely going to face primary opposition because, well- he’s Ted Cruz. In all likelihood, the opposition won’t succeed- but it will be interesting. US Representative Michael McCaul is seen as the “Establishment Frontrunner” for the slot. Another possibility is former Trump campaign spokeswoman Katrina Pierson- though that seems highly unlikely.
Outside of the GOP, there’s talk but it’s not really gonna go anywhere. US Representatives Joaquin Castro and Beto O’Rourke are seen as possible candidates for the Democratic nomination, and former GOP strategist Matthew Dowd is considering a grassroots Independent campaign. Just gonna laugh at a guy who’s been big on the Establishment his entire life suddenly trying to be the voice of the grassroots while running against one of the biggest grassroots candidates in America…
Utah
Incumbent: Orrin Hatch
Incumbent’s Plan: Unknown
Utah is set to be a massive primary battle for the GOP. Incumbent Orrin Hatch is rumored to want a 569th term, while former Governor Jon Huntsman, Jr. is rumored to want the seat. You also have Evan McMullin who’d likely run as a “Never Trump” candidate. In all honesty, this seat is hard to say on which Republican will end up holding it. But the Democrats (Jim Matheson and Ben McAdams) are pretty much done- there’s no chance of them winning. Evan could run an Independent campaign again, but I doubt it’d be anywhere near successful…
Wyoming
Incumbent: John Barasso
Incumbent’s Plan: Unknown
Barasso is expected to run for and win reelection easily with little primary opposition.
Projections
Before November 6, 2018
Republicans: 52
Democrats: 46
Independents caucusing with Democrats: 2
Seats Up on November 6, 2018
Republicans: 9
Democrats: 23
Independents caucusing with Democrats: 2
After November 6, 2018
Republicans: 57
Democrats: 41
Independents caucusing with Democrats: 2
