By DJH
***
With 2018 fast approaching Democrats are smelling blood in the House and the Senate. Historically, Midterms favor the opposing party. With Trump’s extreme unpopularity, and a horrible GOP congress that sucks, this would make a lot of sense. And Democrats are beginning to show their confidence.
After the “Repeal and Replace” bill that didn’t repeal or replace Obamacare in any way, shape, or form, Democrats started singing “Na na na na, na na na na, hey hey hey- goodbye!” to the House GOP.
There certainly is a risk in 2018 for the GOP. They face a daunting task in the Governor’s races- Democrats have nine seats to try and hold while the GOP has 26 (there is also an Independent race in Alaska). In the House the GOP has to defend 241 total seats against the Democrat’s 194. The Senate is easily the safest option for the GOP- they have eight seats up while Democrats have 25.
Also notable is how energized the Democrat base is. The GOP’s base is, well, disheartened. After again falling for the GOP lies, many GOP voters seem ready to abandon the party.
So this looks like a good election for the Democrats, right? Well, there’s a problem. This is where the Obama-era issues for Democrats come into play.
Democrats can have the momentum- but do they have the people? Democrats will say they do but it is beginning to show how few they have to actually take back the Senate, the House, and the Governors’ Mansions.
A perfect example comes to us from the great dairy state of Wisconsin. This is a prime target for Democrats. Wisconsin is a battleground state that’s leaned to the Left for some time now. Certainly they can win here?
They could. If they had anyone other than Bob Harlow. Never heard of him? Don’t worry- most of the people in Wisconsin haven’t either. There are also other possible candidates- but most of the big ones have already said they won’t be running.
And this is where the House comes in. For Democrats, they’re gonna need to find at least 40 people to run in 40 districts that could possibly flip to them.
And many of the predictions at the moment are all saying the same thing: the GOP currently has somewhere between 200 and 210 safe seats. They need 218 for a majority. That means they only need to win a handful of districts to keep their majority.
Then of course you have the Senate. Some Democrats seem to think they’ll win three states- namely Nevada, Arizona, and Texas. First off- LOL you really think Texas is in play?! Second, Arizona is a lot like Pennsylvania for the GOP. Occasionally they punt there, but most of the time the ball is ripped out right from under their feet. Arizona is likely going to vote for Flake again (ugh) so there’s 51 GOP states. Nevada, the likeliest state to flip for the Democrats, has a major issue for them as well. They don’t have any candidates. They throw names out but they all stink. It’s so bad that a major Democrat donor has endorsed Dean Heller. And of course the other states are so solid that it’ll take more than a miracle to flip them. So yeah, the GOP is keeping the Senate.
But what about the Governors races? Again- so many are in safe states it won’t matter. And in many of the contested states the GOP has bigger candidates than Democrats. There are only a handful of actual tossups, and many of them seem to favor the incumbent party.
So Democrats, take my word for it. Don’t get cocky. You may think you’re all high and mighty- but the problem is you guys don’t have the resources needed to beat the GOP in 2018.
And of course- no matter what happens, Conservatives are going to be screwed without even a dinner.
