When the Pew Research Center started tracking Americans view of free trade agreements, the partisan divide was practically non-existing. Fifty-seven percent of Republican voters approved of free trade agreements, while 54 percent of Democrat voters approved. This was 2008, on the eve of the financial crisis. In essence, college-educated voters of both parties approved of trade deals, while voters with less than a college education disapproved of them.
In my view, even at that time, trade deals were unpopular in the aggregate. All the passion was with the opponents of free trade deals. On the left the legacy of anti-WTO protests was strong, while on the right a vocal protectionist wing remained. The only people passionate about free trade agreements were scholars at the American Enterprise Institute and professional economists.
In the Republican side, it all went downhill from there. Following the financial crisis, the election of Obama, and the Tea Party rebellion, approval of trade deals fell among Republicans. Then, following the Trump campaign, it cratered. At the same time, approval of trade went significantly up among Democrats, seemingly in reaction to Trump. The result was one of the most incredible poll numbers I’ve seen; as of 2017, 36 percent of Republicans approved of trade deals, while 67 percent of Democrats did so. Trade deals have become a partisan issue.
Free(ish) trade doesn’t have a constituency. The benefits of trade are widespread—cheaper, better quality clothing, for example—while the costs are concentrated (textile workers losing their jobs). In addition, as Megan McArdle points out, we human beings see ourselves are producers much more strongly than we imagine ourselves as consumers. (The question, ‘what do you do’ is a conversation starter, while the question ‘what do you buy’ is absurd). Thus, workers who lose out to trade, or merely imagine losing to trade, are ready to become activists against trade. Consumers just enjoy their wonderful, inexpensive clothes.
Worst of all, the benefits of free trade make no intuitive sense. Our tribal minds expect winners and losers from trade deals. When a rabble-rouser like Donald Trump talks about the United States ‘losing’ in trade for years and years, he shows ignorance of history and economics—but his understanding of human psychology is perfect. Our minds constantly look for cheaters, and we fear we’ll be bested.
Free(ish) trade will rarely be a winning issue. It benefits almost everyone at the end, but our minds find it difficult to believe this. People rarely feel inspired by it. Our mental biases will not change in the future. This is part of our collective tragedy; another cross for our species to bear.
