One of the least attractive controversies to come out of the Brett Kavanaugh hearings has been the debate about lying and body language. Some liberal friends have concluded that Judge Kavanaugh’s body language indicate he was lying. Similarly, some conservative friends have said Dr. Ford’s body language indicate she’s lying. I’m here to tell you they are both wrong. Body language, demeanor, voice pitch and so on are reliable indicators of a person’s feeling at the moment they are speaking. But that’s all they indicate. Our liberal and conservative friends are both wrong. Our impressions of people speaking under stress mean nothing. They don’t know because nobody knows.
When Jose Canseco spoke of steroid use in Major League Baseball, most people didn’t believe him. After all, Canseco was a liar and a cheat, a completely unreliable witness. But he was telling the truth. Evidence bore him out. Liars are capable of telling the truth, and truth-tellers are capable of lying. And we human beings are not particularly skilled at separating truth from lies in either case. Truth exists independently from our perceptions.
In a more recent case, FBI agent Peter Strzok spoke to congress. Liberals though he was rightfully outraged, while conservatives thought he was arrogant and unhinged. Liberals thought Mr. Strzok was a courageous truth-teller, while conservatives thought he was an agent of the Deep State, whatever that means. I think they are all partially right. From Mr. Strzok’s testimony at the time, we can conclude he was outraged and he tends to show contempt from human beings he considers beneath him. But when it comes to the truth and lies of his specific testimony, we can’t reach no conclusion. We don’t know. Because nobody knows.
Lying and lie-detection is an arms race. Liars tell their lies for fun and profit, while people trying to detect truth from lies try to discern truth. Through human history, this has happened over and over, in whatever little village human evolution took place. Sometimes liars get away with their lies, sometimes they are caught. As I said, it is an arms race. Liars try to come up with better lying techniques, while lie-detectors try to come up with better ways to discern truth. Over time an equilibrium is reached. Sometimes liars get their way, sometimes they are caught.
Our confidence in our ability to spot liars is misguided. We have all been bamboozled at some point in our lives. Sometimes a boyfriend or girlfriend cheats. A ‘work from home’ job doesn’t pan out. The Nigerian prince refuses to call back. We try to flip that house, but no one buys. We are all vulnerable to liars.
When I ask you to believe me about our shared vulnerability to liars, I wish you would believe me. Not only do I ‘wish’ it, but I implore you. One of the features of human nature is overconfidence. We all think we can solve that problem. We all think we would do better than those idiots in management. We all think we can spot the liar by their demeanor. But that isn’t so. Sometimes liars tell lies, sometimes they tell the truth. Their demeanor means nothing.
We think we can spot liars, but that’s a delusion. I wish you’d understand this: people tell the truth, and people lie. I don’t know how to sort the difference. You don’t know how to sort the difference either. Because no one knows.
