Happy Monday FR readers! We don’t have a post from Stephen this Monday, but instead we bring to you a guest post from friend of the show, Alex. Thank you Alex!! Have a great day everyone!
Nigel Farage has done it again. After leading the UKIP party to an impressive win in 2014, edging out the Labour party by 4 seats, the leader of the Brexit movement formed the Brexit party. With Theresa May’s inability to get Britain out of the EU for over a year, it was clear the Conservative party had lost the faith of many of its voters, opening the door for the Brexit party to have massive success by combining the UKIP voters with the disenfranchised Tories. Meanwhile, Labour fell, Liberal Democrats rose, and the Green party made modest gains. Here is a definitive breakdown of how each party faired on election day:
Conservatives (AKA Tories)
For decades, the Conservative and Labour parties have dominated the landscape of British politics, representing the right and the left wings of the country respectively, so few believed that both parties could suffer the drastic losses seen in the last election. The Conservatives had arguably the worst election day they had ever seen, finishing fifth overall and losing 15 of their 19 seats. The hemorrhaging of support was clearly driven by Prime Minister May’s inability to deliver Brexit, as she has delayed the country’s departure from the multi-country governing body for months. The belief of the British establishment was that the people did not truly want a Brexit, and leaving the EU without a comprehensive deal that maintained close ties to the continent would be disastrous. May put multiple deals on the table, which were all crushed by Parliament, as neither the left nor the right were satisfied with her compromise. This would not only result in May’s resignation the day after the elections, but also with a final warning aimed at the party by its supporters: deliver Brexit, or we will vote you out.
Labour
The Labour party fared slightly better than the Tories. The party has taken a firm remain stance in relation to Brexit, helping shield them from the backlash the Conservatives faced. However, voters were clearly upset about the party’s relative ineffectiveness, and Jeremy Corbyn’s party lost 10 of its 20 seats, finishing third overall. Ceding major ground to the Liberal Democratic party in left wing areas like London, the Labour party has now fallen to an internal struggle that has been brewing for almost a year. Members of the party are pushing for Corbyn to back a second referendum on Brexit, hoping to overturn the vote before the October 31 deadline and keep the England in the EU. However, the party has supporters in Northern England who back the Brexit move, making supporting a second referendum a major risk. With general elections coming up in 2022, it would be tough for Corbyn to regain the voters he lost to the LibDem’s and also regain the loyal supporters in the North he may lose if he backs a second vote on Brexit. The party may not be in a complete free fall yet, but this civil war is not disappearing anytime soon.
Green Party
With concerns growing about Climate Change across Europe, the Green Party were able to make significant moves across Europe and become somewhat of a player in the EU. The main successes occurred in Britain and Germany, as a new wave of Green voters showed out. Passing the Conservative party, the Greens came out with 7 total seats, a 4 seat increase from the 2014 elections. The increase of support seems to have come from Labour voters, as both parties find a home on the left wing and share many core ideals. Of course, as the name suggests, the Green party places a heavy focus on the environment, an issue that has been somewhat overshadowed by the Brexit ordeal consuming the country’s politics. With Labour voters more susceptible than usual to changing parties, the Greens were able to capture fair amount of new voters and finish fourth overall when all was said and done.
Liberal Democrats (AKA LibDems)
After living in the perpetual shadow of the Labour party for years, leader Vince Cable was able to deliver a breakout election for the Liberal Democrats. The center-left party picked up an astounding 23 seats after entering election day with only one, putting the major players on notice. Where the growing support came from is particularly interesting, as it appears that the LibDems managed to entice a number of Conservative voters to join their cause. This gives the party a chance to establish a firm foothold, as they have momentum heading into the general election. If they can keep the Labour supporters they gained, along with a portion of the Tories, Cable’s party has the opportunity to establish itself as a solid third party option for the electorate. Of course, if Brexit does go through, they face the challenges of keeping the voters they gained from returning to their original parties after the dust has settled.
Brexit Party
Nigel Farage is the face of British politics. That is undeniable. After leading UKIP to victory in 2014, Farage founded the Brexit Party six weeks before the election, and walked away with 29 seats, capturing 9/10 regions and over 31% of the total vote. The party has next to no objectives aside from delivering Brexit. No strong economic message. No strong immigration message. Only the desire to separate from the EU. This message is so strong, it alone attracted not only the votes from the UKIP party, but a substantial amount from the Conservatives, leading to a five seat gain over UKIP. This was a message to the conservative party, pure and simple. And if the Tories can deliver on Brexit, it is likely they will see a large return of voters who defected to Farage’s leave based messaging. Integrating Farage back into the party could return the Conservatives to dominance, but it is clear he will not give up on Brexit. Farage’s resilience could very well ensure the British political course is irreversibly altered.
