Happy hump day!!
Today’s post comes to us from Alex, friend of the blog! Thank you, Alex!
Biden is back. After what can only be described as a disastrous start for the former Vice President and Delaware senator, Joe Biden came storming back on Super Tuesday, taking the lead from democratic socialist Bernie Sanders in the primary race, and creating a very tight two horse race. With Biden holding a narrow 76 delegate lead, and every other major candidate officially out of the race, it is possible to get a clearer view on how the rest of the primary process will play out, and more importantly, the implications it will have on the general election.
The first step in getting a feel for how the rest of the race will play out is to identify how Biden and Sanders will play in the swing states. Not only are these essential in November, but they hold a great number of delegates in the primary. So far, it has been Biden who has had remarkable success in these states. He won the Republican leading state of North Carolina by 18.9%, and the always vulnerable Virginia by over 20%. While this is not a large sample size, it is apparent that Bernie Sanders needs to work hard on turning the tide in these more moderate swing states. With Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin, and Florida all coming up, Sanders not only needs the delegates, but he also needs to prove he is viable in these states in order to build confidence among voters that he can beat Donald Trump. Right now, it appears as if Bernie Sanders lacks the appeal in states he must win to take the White House, so he must change that narrative going forward. Biden, on the other hand, is strengthening his electability argument with dominant wins in those areas, a trend he hopes to carry into November should he win the nomination.
Of course, swing states alone do not decide the Democratic nominee. California and New York are two of the biggest prizes in the race, and with Sanders already winning California by over 8%, these liberal havens could be a lifeline for the Vermont senator. Oregon and New York offer prime chances to fend off the Biden wave, while smaller states such as Hawaii and Kansas have strong sects of progressives among the democratic ranks. If Sanders can consolidate the progressive base after Elizabeth Warren’s suspension of her campaign, Sanders can maintain momentum, and continue to be a player in the northeast. This, along with his strong support among Latino voters propelling him to victory in Arizona and New Mexico, could net Sanders enough delegates to walk away with the primary.
Now, those are the two simplest of outcomes. Biden continues to dominate in crucial swing states and the south and coasts to the nomination, or Sanders rides a wave of progressive enthusiasm and fundamentally takes over the party. However, perhaps the most interesting outcome would be a contested convention. As you can see, Biden and Sanders have different paths to the nomination. However, it is possible both paths occur simultaneously, meaning Sanders does well enough in progressive states to block Biden from getting to the magic number of 1,991 delegates, and Biden does well enough in his strongholds to block Bernie. This is a worst case scenario for the Democrats. A contested convention means super delegates get to join in on the second ballot, and all signs point to them jumping on the Biden bandwagon, essentially meaning the DNC would nominate Joe Biden, not the voters. This would infuriate Bernie Sanders’ supporters. This is a group of people who felt that the 2016 primary was rigged, and Hilary stole the election from Sanders. They have an Us vs the World, or in this case the Democratic establishment, attitude, and will viciously rebuke the coronation of the establishment candidate by party elites. This rift already exists, and is very prominent, and a contested convention may create a full on divide, making it impossible for Biden to cobble enough support together to defeat Donald Trump.
On the other hand, there is a best case scenario for the Democrats. In an ideal world, either Biden or Sanders would simply run away with the vote. Biden would take New York along with all the states he is favored in, or Sanders would take Florida and Pennsylvania along with his progressive states, and there would be a clear cut winner. Regardless of what people think about each candidate’s viability, this scenario allows the voters to make the choice, and the DNC to simply take a back seat at the convention. It prevents a brutal civil war between moderates and progressives, and at least gives the Democrats a hope in November. The nomination is up for grabs, and the next few months will decide whether Democrats have a chance to win back the presidency, or whether Trump coasts into a second term.
